Paper ID: 2111.03422

Transferable Time-Series Forecasting under Causal Conditional Shift

Zijian Li, Ruichu Cai, Tom Z. J Fu, Zhifeng Hao, Kun Zhang

This paper focuses on the problem of semi-supervised domain adaptation for time-series forecasting, which is underexplored in literatures, despite being often encountered in practice. Existing methods on time-series domain adaptation mainly follow the paradigm designed for the static data, which cannot handle domain-specific complex conditional dependencies raised by data offset, time lags, and variant data distributions. In order to address these challenges, we analyze variational conditional dependencies in time-series data and find that the causal structures are usually stable among domains, and further raise the causal conditional shift assumption. Enlightened by this assumption, we consider the causal generation process for time-series data and propose an end-to-end model for the semi-supervised domain adaptation problem on time-series forecasting. Our method can not only discover the Granger-Causal structures among cross-domain data but also address the cross-domain time-series forecasting problem with accurate and interpretable predicted results. We further theoretically analyze the superiority of the proposed method, where the generalization error on the target domain is bounded by the empirical risks and by the discrepancy between the causal structures from different domains. Experimental results on both synthetic and real data demonstrate the effectiveness of our method for the semi-supervised domain adaptation method on time-series forecasting.

Submitted: Nov 5, 2021