Paper ID: 2111.09954

MS-nowcasting: Operational Precipitation Nowcasting with Convolutional LSTMs at Microsoft Weather

Sylwester Klocek, Haiyu Dong, Matthew Dixon, Panashe Kanengoni, Najeeb Kazmi, Pete Luferenko, Zhongjian Lv, Shikhar Sharma, Jonathan Weyn, Siqi Xiang

We present the encoder-forecaster convolutional long short-term memory (LSTM) deep-learning model that powers Microsoft Weather's operational precipitation nowcasting product. This model takes as input a sequence of weather radar mosaics and deterministically predicts future radar reflectivity at lead times up to 6 hours. By stacking a large input receptive field along the feature dimension and conditioning the model's forecaster with predictions from the physics-based High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model, we are able to outperform optical flow and HRRR baselines by 20-25% on multiple metrics averaged over all lead times.

Submitted: Nov 18, 2021