Paper ID: 2112.09015

Multivariate Realized Volatility Forecasting with Graph Neural Network

Qinkai Chen, Christian-Yann Robert

The existing publications demonstrate that the limit order book data is useful in predicting short-term volatility in stock markets. Since stocks are not independent, changes on one stock can also impact other related stocks. In this paper, we are interested in forecasting short-term realized volatility in a multivariate approach based on limit order book data and relational data. To achieve this goal, we introduce Graph Transformer Network for Volatility Forecasting. The model allows to combine limit order book features and an unlimited number of temporal and cross-sectional relations from different sources. Through experiments based on about 500 stocks from S&P 500 index, we find a better performance for our model than for other benchmarks.

Submitted: Dec 16, 2021