Paper ID: 2112.10588

CGAN-EB: A Non-parametric Empirical Bayes Method for Crash Hotspot Identification Using Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks: A Real-world Crash Data Study

Mohammad Zarei, Bruce Hellinga, Pedram Izadpanah

The empirical Bayes (EB) method based on parametric statistical models such as the negative binomial (NB) has been widely used for ranking sites in road network safety screening process. This paper is the continuation of the authors previous research, where a novel non-parametric EB method for modelling crash frequency data data based on Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks (CGAN) was proposed and evaluated over several simulated crash data sets. Unlike parametric approaches, there is no need for a pre-specified underlying relationship between dependent and independent variables in the proposed CGAN-EB and they are able to model any types of distributions. The proposed methodology is now applied to a real-world data set collected for road segments from 2012 to 2017 in Washington State. The performance of CGAN-EB in terms of model fit, predictive performance and network screening outcomes is compared with the conventional approach (NB-EB) as a benchmark. The results indicate that the proposed CGAN-EB approach outperforms NB-EB in terms of prediction power and hotspot identification tests.

Submitted: Dec 16, 2021