Paper ID: 2207.14372

Model selection with Gini indices under auto-calibration

Mario V. Wüthrich

The Gini index does not give a strictly consistent scoring rule in general. Therefore, maximizing the Gini index may lead to wrong decisions. The main issue is that the Gini index is a rank-based score that is not calibration-sensitive. We show that the Gini index allows for strictly consistent scoring if we restrict to the class of auto-calibrated regression models.

Submitted: Jul 28, 2022