Paper ID: 2211.15912

Optimizing Stock Option Forecasting with the Assembly of Machine Learning Models and Improved Trading Strategies

Zheng Cao, Raymond Guo, Wenyu Du, Jiayi Gao, Kirill V. Golubnichiy

This paper introduced key aspects of applying Machine Learning (ML) models, improved trading strategies, and the Quasi-Reversibility Method (QRM) to optimize stock option forecasting and trading results. It presented the findings of the follow-up project of the research "Application of Convolutional Neural Networks with Quasi-Reversibility Method Results for Option Forecasting". First, the project included an application of Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to provide a novel way of predicting stock option trends. Additionally, it examined the dependence of the ML models by evaluating the experimental method of combining multiple ML models to improve prediction results and decision-making. Lastly, two improved trading strategies and simulated investing results were presented. The Binomial Asset Pricing Model with discrete time stochastic process analysis and portfolio hedging was applied and suggested an optimized investment expectation. These results can be utilized in real-life trading strategies to optimize stock option investment results based on historical data.

Submitted: Nov 29, 2022