Paper ID: 2211.16367

A locally time-invariant metric for climate model ensemble predictions of extreme risk

Mala Virdee, Markus Kaiser, Emily Shuckburgh, Carl Henrik Ek, Ieva Kazlauskaite

Adaptation-relevant predictions of climate change are often derived by combining climate model simulations in a multi-model ensemble. Model evaluation methods used in performance-based ensemble weighting schemes have limitations in the context of high-impact extreme events. We introduce a locally time-invariant method for evaluating climate model simulations with a focus on assessing the simulation of extremes. We explore the behaviour of the proposed method in predicting extreme heat days in Nairobi and provide comparative results for eight additional cities.

Submitted: Nov 26, 2022