Paper ID: 2212.13061

Towards Improved Prediction of Ship Performance: A Comparative Analysis on In-service Ship Monitoring Data for Modeling the Speed-Power Relation

Simon DeKeyser, Casimir Morobé, Malte Mittendorf

Accurate modeling of ship performance is crucial for the shipping industry to optimize fuel consumption and subsequently reduce emissions. However, predicting the speed-power relation in real-world conditions remains a challenge. In this study, we used in-service monitoring data from multiple vessels with different hull shapes to compare the accuracy of data-driven machine learning (ML) algorithms to traditional methods for assessing ship performance. Our analysis consists of two main parts: (1) a comparison of sea trial curves with calm-water curves fitted on operational data, and (2) a benchmark of multiple added wave resistance theories with an ML-based approach. Our results showed that a simple neural network outperformed established semi-empirical formulas following first principles. The neural network only required operational data as input, while the traditional methods required extensive ship particulars that are often unavailable. These findings suggest that data-driven algorithms may be more effective for predicting ship performance in practical applications.

Submitted: Dec 26, 2022