Paper ID: 2301.05763

A Rigorous Uncertainty-Aware Quantification Framework Is Essential for Reproducible and Replicable Machine Learning Workflows

Line Pouchard, Kristofer G. Reyes, Francis J. Alexander, Byung-Jun Yoon

The ability to replicate predictions by machine learning (ML) or artificial intelligence (AI) models and results in scientific workflows that incorporate such ML/AI predictions is driven by numerous factors. An uncertainty-aware metric that can quantitatively assess the reproducibility of quantities of interest (QoI) would contribute to the trustworthiness of results obtained from scientific workflows involving ML/AI models. In this article, we discuss how uncertainty quantification (UQ) in a Bayesian paradigm can provide a general and rigorous framework for quantifying reproducibility for complex scientific workflows. Such as framework has the potential to fill a critical gap that currently exists in ML/AI for scientific workflows, as it will enable researchers to determine the impact of ML/AI model prediction variability on the predictive outcomes of ML/AI-powered workflows. We expect that the envisioned framework will contribute to the design of more reproducible and trustworthy workflows for diverse scientific applications, and ultimately, accelerate scientific discoveries.

Submitted: Jan 13, 2023