Paper ID: 2307.06564

Prescriptive Process Monitoring Under Resource Constraints: A Reinforcement Learning Approach

Mahmoud Shoush, Marlon Dumas

Prescriptive process monitoring methods seek to optimize the performance of business processes by triggering interventions at runtime, thereby increasing the probability of positive case outcomes. These interventions are triggered according to an intervention policy. Reinforcement learning has been put forward as an approach to learning intervention policies through trial and error. Existing approaches in this space assume that the number of resources available to perform interventions in a process is unlimited, an unrealistic assumption in practice. This paper argues that, in the presence of resource constraints, a key dilemma in the field of prescriptive process monitoring is to trigger interventions based not only on predictions of their necessity, timeliness, or effect but also on the uncertainty of these predictions and the level of resource utilization. Indeed, committing scarce resources to an intervention when the necessity or effects of this intervention are highly uncertain may intuitively lead to suboptimal intervention effects. Accordingly, the paper proposes a reinforcement learning approach for prescriptive process monitoring that leverages conformal prediction techniques to consider the uncertainty of the predictions upon which an intervention decision is based. An evaluation using real-life datasets demonstrates that explicitly modeling uncertainty using conformal predictions helps reinforcement learning agents converge towards policies with higher net intervention gain

Submitted: Jul 13, 2023