Paper ID: 2307.14500

A Predictive Model of Digital Information Engagement: Forecasting User Engagement With English Words by Incorporating Cognitive Biases, Computational Linguistics and Natural Language Processing

Nimrod Dvir, Elaine Friedman, Suraj Commuri, Fan yang, Jennifer Romano

This study introduces and empirically tests a novel predictive model for digital information engagement (IE) - the READ model, an acronym for the four pivotal attributes of engaging information: Representativeness, Ease-of-use, Affect, and Distribution. Conceptualized within the theoretical framework of Cumulative Prospect Theory, the model integrates key cognitive biases with computational linguistics and natural language processing to develop a multidimensional perspective on information engagement. A rigorous testing protocol was implemented, involving 50 randomly selected pairs of synonymous words (100 words in total) from the WordNet database. These words' engagement levels were evaluated through a large-scale online survey (n = 80,500) to derive empirical IE metrics. The READ attributes for each word were then computed and their predictive efficacy examined. The findings affirm the READ model's robustness, accurately predicting a word's IE level and distinguishing the more engaging word from a pair of synonyms with an 84% accuracy rate. The READ model's potential extends across various domains, including business, education, government, and healthcare, where it could enhance content engagement and inform AI language model development and generative text work. Future research should address the model's scalability and adaptability across different domains and languages, thereby broadening its applicability and efficacy.

Submitted: Jul 26, 2023