Paper ID: 2307.14675

Prediction of wind turbines power with physics-informed neural networks and evidential uncertainty quantification

Alfonso Gijón, Ainhoa Pujana-Goitia, Eugenio Perea, Miguel Molina-Solana, Juan Gómez-Romero

The ever-growing use of wind energy makes necessary the optimization of turbine operations through pitch angle controllers and their maintenance with early fault detection. It is crucial to have accurate and robust models imitating the behavior of wind turbines, especially to predict the generated power as a function of the wind speed. Existing empirical and physics-based models have limitations in capturing the complex relations between the input variables and the power, aggravated by wind variability. Data-driven methods offer new opportunities to enhance wind turbine modeling of large datasets by improving accuracy and efficiency. In this study, we used physics-informed neural networks to reproduce historical data coming from 4 turbines in a wind farm, while imposing certain physical constraints to the model. The developed models for regression of the power, torque, and power coefficient as output variables showed great accuracy for both real data and physical equations governing the system. Lastly, introducing an efficient evidential layer provided uncertainty estimations of the predictions, proved to be consistent with the absolute error, and made possible the definition of a confidence interval in the power curve.

Submitted: Jul 27, 2023