Paper ID: 2309.03851

CenTime: Event-Conditional Modelling of Censoring in Survival Analysis

Ahmed H. Shahin, An Zhao, Alexander C. Whitehead, Daniel C. Alexander, Joseph Jacob, David Barber

Survival analysis is a valuable tool for estimating the time until specific events, such as death or cancer recurrence, based on baseline observations. This is particularly useful in healthcare to prognostically predict clinically important events based on patient data. However, existing approaches often have limitations; some focus only on ranking patients by survivability, neglecting to estimate the actual event time, while others treat the problem as a classification task, ignoring the inherent time-ordered structure of the events. Furthermore, the effective utilization of censored samples - training data points where the exact event time is unknown - is essential for improving the predictive accuracy of the model. In this paper, we introduce CenTime, a novel approach to survival analysis that directly estimates the time to event. Our method features an innovative event-conditional censoring mechanism that performs robustly even when uncensored data is scarce. We demonstrate that our approach forms a consistent estimator for the event model parameters, even in the absence of uncensored data. Furthermore, CenTime is easily integrated with deep learning models with no restrictions on batch size or the number of uncensored samples. We compare our approach with standard survival analysis methods, including the Cox proportional-hazard model and DeepHit. Our results indicate that CenTime offers state-of-the-art performance in predicting time-to-death while maintaining comparable ranking performance. Our implementation is publicly available at https://github.com/ahmedhshahin/CenTime.

Submitted: Sep 7, 2023