Paper ID: 2309.07174

HurriCast: An Automatic Framework Using Machine Learning and Statistical Modeling for Hurricane Forecasting

Shouwei Gao, Meiyan Gao, Yuepeng Li, Wenqian Dong

Hurricanes present major challenges in the U.S. due to their devastating impacts. Mitigating these risks is important, and the insurance industry is central in this effort, using intricate statistical models for risk assessment. However, these models often neglect key temporal and spatial hurricane patterns and are limited by data scarcity. This study introduces a refined approach combining the ARIMA model and K-MEANS to better capture hurricane trends, and an Autoencoder for enhanced hurricane simulations. Our experiments show that this hybrid methodology effectively simulate historical hurricane behaviors while providing detailed projections of potential future trajectories and intensities. Moreover, by leveraging a comprehensive yet selective dataset, our simulations enrich the current understanding of hurricane patterns and offer actionable insights for risk management strategies.

Submitted: Sep 12, 2023