Paper ID: 2309.15169

Revealing the Power of Spatial-Temporal Masked Autoencoders in Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

Jiarui Sun, Yujie Fan, Chin-Chia Michael Yeh, Wei Zhang, Girish Chowdhary

Multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting involves predicting future time series data based on historical observations. Existing research primarily emphasizes the development of complex spatial-temporal models that capture spatial dependencies and temporal correlations among time series variables explicitly. However, recent advances have been impeded by challenges relating to data scarcity and model robustness. To address these issues, we propose Spatial-Temporal Masked Autoencoders (STMAE), an MTS forecasting framework that leverages masked autoencoders to enhance the performance of spatial-temporal baseline models. STMAE consists of two learning stages. In the pretraining stage, an encoder-decoder architecture is employed. The encoder processes the partially visible MTS data produced by a novel dual-masking strategy, including biased random walk-based spatial masking and patch-based temporal masking. Subsequently, the decoders aim to reconstruct the masked counterparts from both spatial and temporal perspectives. The pretraining stage establishes a challenging pretext task, compelling the encoder to learn robust spatial-temporal patterns. In the fine-tuning stage, the pretrained encoder is retained, and the original decoder from existing spatial-temporal models is appended for forecasting. Extensive experiments are conducted on multiple MTS benchmarks. The promising results demonstrate that integrating STMAE into various spatial-temporal models can largely enhance their MTS forecasting capability.

Submitted: Sep 26, 2023