Paper ID: 2310.17986

Fuzzy Multi-Agent Simulation of COVID-19 Pandemic Spreading

Didier El Baz, Andrei Doncescu

In this paper, we present a new approach for Covid-19 Pandemic spreading simulation based on fuzzy multi agents. The agent parameters consider distribution of the population according to age, and the index of socio-economic fragility. Medical knowledge affirms that the COVID-19 main risk factors are age and obesity. The worst medical situation is caused by the combination of these two risk factors which in almost99% of cases finish in ICU. The appearance of virus variants is another aspect parameter by our simulation through a simplified modeling of the contagiousness. Using real data from people from West Indies (Guadeloupe, F.W.I.), we modeled the infection rate of the risk population, if neither vaccination nor barrier gestures are respected. The results show that hospital capacities are exceeded, and the number of deaths exceeds 2% of the infected population, which is close to the reality.

Submitted: Oct 27, 2023