Paper ID: 2310.18681

DySurv: Dynamic Deep Learning Model for Survival Prediction in the ICU

Munib Mesinovic, Peter Watkinson, Tingting Zhu

Survival analysis focuses on estimating time-to-event distributions which can help in dynamic risk prediction in healthcare. Extending beyond the classical Cox model, deep learning techniques have been developed which moved away from the constraining assumptions of proportional hazards. Traditional statistical models often only include static information where, in this work, we propose a novel conditional variational autoencoder-based method called DySurv, which uses a combination of static and time-series measurements from patient electronic health records to estimate the risk of death dynamically. DySurv has been tested on several time-to-event benchmarks where it outperforms existing methods, including deep learning methods, and we evaluate it on real-world intensive care unit data from MIMIC-IV and eICU. The predictive capacity of DySurv is consistent and the survival estimates remain disentangled across different datasets supporting the idea that dynamic deep learning models based on conditional variational inference in multi-task cases can be robust models for survival analysis.

Submitted: Oct 28, 2023