Paper ID: 2310.19591

Prediction of Locally Stationary Data Using Expert Advice

Vladimir V'yugin, Vladimir Trunov

The problem of continuous machine learning is studied. Within the framework of the game-theoretic approach, when for calculating the next forecast, no assumptions about the stochastic nature of the source that generates the data flow are used -- the source can be analog, algorithmic or probabilistic, its parameters can change at random times, when building a prognostic model, only structural assumptions are used about the nature of data generation. An online forecasting algorithm for a locally stationary time series is presented. An estimate of the efficiency of the proposed algorithm is obtained.

Submitted: Oct 30, 2023