Paper ID: 2311.05128

Exploring and Analyzing Wildland Fire Data Via Machine Learning Techniques

Dipak Dulal, Joseph J. Charney, Michael Gallagher, Carmeliza Navasca, Nicholas Skowronski

This research project investigated the correlation between a 10 Hz time series of thermocouple temperatures and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) computed from wind speeds collected from a small experimental prescribed burn at the Silas Little Experimental Forest in New Jersey, USA. The primary objective of this project was to explore the potential for using thermocouple temperatures as predictors for estimating the TKE produced by a wildland fire. Machine learning models, including Deep Neural Networks, Random Forest Regressor, Gradient Boosting, and Gaussian Process Regressor, are employed to assess the potential for thermocouple temperature perturbations to predict TKE values. Data visualization and correlation analyses reveal patterns and relationships between thermocouple temperatures and TKE, providing insight into the underlying dynamics. The project achieves high accuracy in predicting TKE by employing various machine learning models despite a weak correlation between the predictors and the target variable. The results demonstrate significant success, particularly from regression models, in accurately estimating the TKE. The research findings contribute to fire behavior and smoke modeling science, emphasizing the importance of incorporating machine learning approaches and identifying complex relationships between fine-scale fire behavior and turbulence. Accurate TKE estimation using thermocouple temperatures allows for the refinement of models that can inform decision-making in fire management strategies, facilitate effective risk mitigation, and optimize fire management efforts. This project highlights the valuable role of machine learning techniques in analyzing wildland fire data, showcasing their potential to advance fire research and management practices.

Submitted: Nov 9, 2023