Paper ID: 2312.10464

Unveiling Empirical Pathologies of Laplace Approximation for Uncertainty Estimation

Maksim Zhdanov, Stanislav Dereka, Sergey Kolesnikov

In this paper, we critically evaluate Bayesian methods for uncertainty estimation in deep learning, focusing on the widely applied Laplace approximation and its variants. Our findings reveal that the conventional method of fitting the Hessian matrix negatively impacts out-of-distribution (OOD) detection efficiency. We propose a different point of view, asserting that focusing solely on optimizing prior precision can yield more accurate uncertainty estimates in OOD detection while preserving adequate calibration metrics. Moreover, we demonstrate that this property is not connected to the training stage of a model but rather to its intrinsic properties. Through extensive experimental evaluation, we establish the superiority of our simplified approach over traditional methods in the out-of-distribution domain.

Submitted: Dec 16, 2023