Paper ID: 2402.06228

Towards participatory multi-modeling for policy support across domains and scales: a systematic procedure for integral multi-model design

Vittorio Nespeca, Rick Quax, Marcel G. M. Olde Rikkert, Hubert P. L. M. Korzilius, Vincent A. W. J. Marchau, Sophie Hadijsotiriou, Tom Oreel, Jannie Coenen, Heiman Wertheim, Alexey Voinov, Etiënne A. J. A. Rouwette, Vítor V. Vasconcelos

Policymaking for complex challenges such as pandemics necessitates the consideration of intricate implications across multiple domains and scales. Computational models can support policymaking, but a single model is often insufficient for such multidomain and scale challenges. Multi-models comprising several interacting computational models at different scales or relying on different modeling paradigms offer a potential solution. Such multi-models can be assembled from existing computational models (i.e., integrated modeling) or be designed conceptually as a whole before their computational implementation (i.e., integral modeling). Integral modeling is particularly valuable for novel policy problems, such as those faced in the early stages of a pandemic, where relevant models may be unavailable or lack standard documentation. Designing such multi-models through an integral approach is, however, a complex task requiring the collaboration of modelers and experts from various domains. In this collaborative effort, modelers must precisely define the domain knowledge needed from experts and establish a systematic procedure for translating such knowledge into a multi-model. Yet, these requirements and systematic procedures are currently lacking for multi-models that are both multiscale and multi-paradigm. We address this challenge by introducing a procedure for developing multi-models with an integral approach based on clearly defined domain knowledge requirements derived from literature. We illustrate this procedure using the case of school closure policies in the Netherlands during the COVID-19 pandemic, revealing their potential implications in the short and long term and across the healthcare and educational domains. The requirements and procedure provided in this article advance the application of integral multi-modeling for policy support in multiscale and multidomain contexts.

Submitted: Feb 9, 2024