Paper ID: 2402.08185

Advancing Data-driven Weather Forecasting: Time-Sliding Data Augmentation of ERA5

Minjong Cheon, Daehyun Kang, Yo-Hwan Choi, Seon-Yu Kang

Modern deep learning techniques, which mimic traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and are derived from global atmospheric reanalysis data, have caused a significant revolution within a few years. In this new paradigm, our research introduces a novel strategy that deviates from the common dependence on high-resolution data, which is often constrained by computational resources, and instead utilizes low-resolution data (2.5 degrees) for global weather prediction and climate data analysis. Our main focus is evaluating data-driven weather prediction (DDWP) frameworks, specifically addressing sample size adequacy, structural improvements to the model, and the ability of climate data to represent current climatic trends. By using the Adaptive Fourier Neural Operator (AFNO) model via FourCastNet and a proposed time-sliding method to inflate the dataset of the ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5), this paper improves on conventional approaches by adding more variables and a novel approach to data augmentation and processing. Our findings reveal that despite the lower resolution, the proposed approach demonstrates considerable accuracy in predicting atmospheric conditions, effectively rivaling higher-resolution models. Furthermore, the study confirms the model's proficiency in reflecting current climate trends and its potential in predicting future climatic events, underscoring its utility in climate change strategies. This research marks a pivotal step in the realm of meteorological forecasting, showcasing the feasibility of lower-resolution data in producing reliable predictions and opening avenues for more accessible and inclusive climate modeling. The insights gleaned from this study not only contribute to the advancement of climate science but also lay the groundwork for future innovations in the field.

Submitted: Feb 13, 2024