Paper ID: 2403.13748

Variational Inference for Uncertainty Quantification: an Analysis of Trade-offs

Charles C. Margossian, Loucas Pillaud-Vivien, Lawrence K. Saul

Given an intractable distribution $p$, the problem of variational inference (VI) is to find the best approximation from some more tractable family $Q$. Commonly, one chooses $Q$ to be a family of factorized distributions (i.e., the mean-field assumption), even though~$p$ itself does not factorize. We show that this mismatch leads to an impossibility theorem: if $p$ does not factorize, then any factorized approximation $q\in Q$ can correctly estimate at most one of the following three measures of uncertainty: (i) the marginal variances, (ii) the marginal precisions, or (iii) the generalized variance (which can be related to the entropy). In practice, the best variational approximation in $Q$ is found by minimizing some divergence $D(q,p)$ between distributions, and so we ask: how does the choice of divergence determine which measure of uncertainty, if any, is correctly estimated by VI? We consider the classic Kullback-Leibler divergences, the more general R\'enyi divergences, and a score-based divergence which compares $\nabla \log p$ and $\nabla \log q$. We provide a thorough theoretical analysis in the setting where $p$ is a Gaussian and $q$ is a (factorized) Gaussian. We show that all the considered divergences can be \textit{ordered} based on the estimates of uncertainty they yield as objective functions for~VI. Finally, we empirically evaluate the validity of this ordering when the target distribution $p$ is not Gaussian.

Submitted: Mar 20, 2024