Paper ID: 2403.16851

Can ChatGPT predict article retraction based on Twitter mentions?

Er-Te Zheng, Hui-Zhen Fu, Zhichao Fang

Detecting problematic research articles timely is a vital task. This study explores whether Twitter mentions of retracted articles can signal potential problems with the articles prior to retraction, thereby playing a role in predicting future retraction of problematic articles. A dataset comprising 3,505 retracted articles and their associated Twitter mentions is analyzed, alongside 3,505 non-retracted articles with similar characteristics obtained using the Coarsened Exact Matching method. The effectiveness of Twitter mentions in predicting article retraction is evaluated by four prediction methods, including manual labelling, keyword identification, machine learning models, and ChatGPT. Manual labelling results indicate that there are indeed retracted articles with their Twitter mentions containing recognizable evidence signaling problems before retraction, although they represent only a limited share of all retracted articles with Twitter mention data (approximately 16%). Using the manual labelling results as the baseline, ChatGPT demonstrates superior performance compared to other methods, implying its potential in assisting human judgment for predicting article retraction. This study uncovers both the potential and limitation of social media events as an early warning system for article retraction, shedding light on a potential application of generative artificial intelligence in promoting research integrity.

Submitted: Mar 25, 2024