Paper ID: 2406.14341

HoTPP Benchmark: Are We Good at the Long Horizon Events Forecasting?

Ivan Karpukhin, Foma Shipilov, Andrey Savchenko

Accurately forecasting multiple future events within a given time horizon is crucial for finance, retail, social networks, and healthcare applications. Event timing and labels are typically modeled using Marked Temporal Point Processes (MTPP), with evaluations often focused on next-event prediction quality. While some studies have extended evaluations to a fixed number of future events, we demonstrate that this approach leads to inaccuracies in handling false positives and false negatives. To address these issues, we propose a novel evaluation method inspired by object detection techniques from computer vision. Specifically, we introduce Temporal mean Average Precision (T-mAP), a temporal variant of mAP, which overcomes the limitations of existing long-horizon evaluation metrics. Our extensive experiments demonstrate that models with strong next-event prediction accuracy can yield poor long-horizon forecasts and vice versa, indicating that specialized methods are needed for each task. To support further research, we release HoTPP, the first benchmark designed explicitly for evaluating long-horizon MTPP predictions. HoTPP includes large-scale datasets with up to 43 million events and provides optimized procedures for both autoregressive and parallel inference, paving the way for future advancements in the field.

Submitted: Jun 20, 2024