Paper ID: 2408.15554

A Novel Denoising Technique and Deep Learning Based Hybrid Wind Speed Forecasting Model for Variable Terrain Conditions

Sourav Malakar, Saptarsi Goswami, Amlan Chakrabarti, Bhaswati Ganguli

Wind flow can be highly unpredictable and can suffer substantial fluctuations in speed and direction due to the shape and height of hills, mountains, and valleys, making accurate wind speed (WS) forecasting essential in complex terrain. This paper presents a novel and adaptive model for short-term forecasting of WS. The paper's key contributions are as follows: (a) The Partial Auto Correlation Function (PACF) is utilised to minimise the dimension of the set of Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMF), hence reducing training time; (b) The sample entropy (SampEn) was used to calculate the complexity of the reduced set of IMFs. The proposed technique is adaptive since a specific Deep Learning (DL) model-feature combination was chosen based on complexity; (c) A novel bidirectional feature-LSTM framework for complicated IMFs has been suggested, resulting in improved forecasting accuracy; (d) The proposed model shows superior forecasting performance compared to the persistence, hybrid, Ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), and Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD)-based deep learning models. It has achieved the lowest variance in terms of forecasting accuracy between simple and complex terrain conditions 0.70%. Dimension reduction of IMF's and complexity-based model-feature selection helps reduce the training time by 68.77% and improve forecasting quality by 58.58% on average.

Submitted: Aug 28, 2024