Paper ID: 2409.06282

Learning Augmentation Policies from A Model Zoo for Time Series Forecasting

Haochen Yuan, Xuelin Li, Yunbo Wang, Xiaokang Yang

Time series forecasting models typically rely on a fixed-size training set and treat all data uniformly, which may not effectively capture the specific patterns present in more challenging training samples. To address this issue, we introduce AutoTSAug, a learnable data augmentation method based on reinforcement learning. Our approach begins with an empirical analysis to determine which parts of the training data should be augmented. Specifically, we identify the so-called marginal samples by considering the prediction diversity across a set of pretrained forecasting models. Next, we propose using variational masked autoencoders as the augmentation model and applying the REINFORCE algorithm to transform the marginal samples into new data. The goal of this generative model is not only to mimic the distribution of real data but also to reduce the variance of prediction errors across the model zoo. By augmenting the marginal samples with a learnable policy, AutoTSAug substantially improves forecasting performance, advancing the prior art in this field with minimal additional computational cost.

Submitted: Sep 10, 2024