Paper ID: 2410.01392

Causal Inference Tools for a Better Evaluation of Machine Learning

Michaël Soumm

We present a comprehensive framework for applying rigorous statistical techniques from econometrics to analyze and improve machine learning systems. We introduce key statistical methods such as Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), and logistic regression, explaining their theoretical foundations and practical applications in machine learning evaluation. The document serves as a guide for researchers and practitioners, detailing how these techniques can provide deeper insights into model behavior, performance, and fairness. We cover the mathematical principles behind each method, discuss their assumptions and limitations, and provide step-by-step instructions for their implementation. The paper also addresses how to interpret results, emphasizing the importance of statistical significance and effect size. Through illustrative examples, we demonstrate how these tools can reveal subtle patterns and interactions in machine learning models that are not apparent from traditional evaluation metrics. By connecting the fields of econometrics and machine learning, this work aims to equip readers with powerful analytical tools for more rigorous and comprehensive evaluation of AI systems. The framework presented here contributes to developing more robust, interpretable, and fair machine learning technologies.

Submitted: Oct 2, 2024