Paper ID: 2410.16301

Intelligent Computing Social Modeling and Methodological Innovations in Political Science in the Era of Large Language Models

Zhenyu Wang, Yi Xu, Dequan Wang, Lingfeng Zhou, Yiqi Zhou

The recent wave of artificial intelligence, epitomized by large language models (LLMs), has presented opportunities and challenges for methodological innovation in political science, sparking discussions on a potential paradigm shift in the social sciences. However, how can we understand the impact of LLMs on knowledge production and paradigm transformation in the social sciences from a comprehensive perspective that integrates technology and methodology? What are LLMs' specific applications and representative innovative methods in political science research? These questions, particularly from a practical methodological standpoint, remain underexplored. This paper proposes the "Intelligent Computing Social Modeling" (ICSM) method to address these issues by clarifying the critical mechanisms of LLMs. ICSM leverages the strengths of LLMs in idea synthesis and action simulation, advancing intellectual exploration in political science through "simulated social construction" and "simulation validation." By simulating the U.S. presidential election, this study empirically demonstrates the operational pathways and methodological advantages of ICSM. By integrating traditional social science paradigms, ICSM not only enhances the quantitative paradigm's capability to apply big data to assess the impact of factors but also provides qualitative paradigms with evidence for social mechanism discovery at the individual level, offering a powerful tool that balances interpretability and predictability in social science research. The findings suggest that LLMs will drive methodological innovation in political science through integration and improvement rather than direct substitution.

Submitted: Oct 7, 2024