Paper ID: 2411.05793

A Comprehensive Survey of Time Series Forecasting: Architectural Diversity and Open Challenges

Jongseon Kim (1 and 3), Hyungjoon Kim (1 and 4), HyunGi Kim (2), Dongjun Lee (1), Sungroh Yoon (1 and 2) ((1) Interdisciplinary Program in Artificial Intelligence, Seoul National University, (2) Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Seoul National University, (3) R&D Department, LG Chem, (4) R&D Department, Samsung SDI)

Time series forecasting is a critical task that provides key information for decision-making across various fields. Recently, various fundamental deep learning architectures such as MLPs, CNNs, RNNs, and GNNs have been developed and applied to solve time series forecasting problems. However, the structural limitations caused by the inductive biases of each deep learning architecture constrained their performance. Transformer models, which excel at handling long-term dependencies, have become significant architectural components for time series forecasting. However, recent research has shown that alternatives such as simple linear layers can outperform Transformers. These findings have opened up new possibilities for using diverse architectures. In this context of exploration into various models, the architectural modeling of time series forecasting has now entered a renaissance. This survey not only provides a historical context for time series forecasting but also offers comprehensive and timely analysis of the movement toward architectural diversification. By comparing and re-examining various deep learning models, we uncover new perspectives and presents the latest trends in time series forecasting, including the emergence of hybrid models, diffusion models, Mamba models, and foundation models. By focusing on the inherent characteristics of time series data, we also address open challenges that have gained attention in time series forecasting, such as channel dependency, distribution shift, causality, and feature extraction. This survey explores vital elements that can enhance forecasting performance through diverse approaches. These contributions lead to lowering the entry barriers for newcomers to the field of time series forecasting, while also offering seasoned researchers broad perspectives, new opportunities, and deep insights.

Submitted: Oct 24, 2024