Paper ID: 2411.19223

On the Unknowable Limits to Prediction

Jiani Yan, Charles Rahal

This short Correspondence critiques the classic dichotomization of prediction error into reducible and irreducible components, noting that certain types of error can be eliminated at differential speeds. We propose an improved analytical framework that better distinguishes epistemic from aleatoric uncertainty, emphasizing that predictability depends on information sets and cautioning against premature claims of unpredictability.

Submitted: Nov 28, 2024