Base Rate

Base rate, the prior probability of an event, plays a crucial role in various fields, from statistical inference to machine learning. Current research focuses on understanding how deviations from Bayesian reasoning, such as base rate neglect, affect decision-making and model performance, particularly in aggregation of expert predictions and large language model evaluations. This includes developing methods to mitigate the impact of base rate biases and improve model robustness, as well as exploring its influence on interpreting complex datasets like those from ice shelf monitoring. Ultimately, a better understanding of base rate effects is vital for improving the accuracy and reliability of predictions across diverse applications.