Conformal Inference

Conformal inference is a model-agnostic framework for constructing prediction sets that guarantee a user-specified probability of containing the true value, regardless of the underlying data distribution. Current research focuses on extending conformal methods to handle non-exchangeable data (like time series), adapting to distribution shifts, and improving efficiency through techniques like adaptive scoring and optimized algorithms (e.g., using regression trees or flow-based models). This robust approach to uncertainty quantification is increasingly important for reliable decision-making in diverse applications, including medical imaging, personalized medicine, and safety-critical systems, where understanding prediction uncertainty is paramount.

Papers

November 3, 2024

Adaptive Conformal Inference by Particle Filtering under Hidden Markov Models
Xiaoyi Su, Zhixin Zhou, Rui Luo
Full Model Particle Filter Hidden Markov Model Hidden State Conformal Inference Conformal Regression Step Inference

October 4, 2024

Conformal confidence sets for biomedical image segmentation
Samuel Davenport
Biomedical Image Segmentation Conformal Inference Confidence Set Cancer Dataset

September 23, 2024

Beyond Conformal Predictors: Adaptive Conformal Inference with Confidence Predictors
Johan Hallberg Szabadváry
Conformal Prediction Conformal Inference Prediction Confidence Conformal Regression Free Uncertainty Conformal Predictor Conformal Method

September 12, 2024

Conformal Distributed Remote Inference in Sensor Networks Under Reliability and Communication Constraints
Meiyi Zhu, Matteo Zecchin, Sangwoo Park, Caili Guo, Chunyan Feng, Petar Popovski, Osvaldo Simeone
Sensor Network Conformal Inference Communication Constraint Conformal Risk Control

August 16, 2024

Adaptive Uncertainty Quantification for Generative AI
Jungeum Kim, Sean O'Hagan, Veronika Rockova
Generative AI Conformal Prediction Black Box Model Conformal Inference Adaptive Uncertainty

August 2, 2024

Conformal Diffusion Models for Individual Treatment Effect Estimation and Inference
Hengrui Cai, Huaqing Jin, Lexin Li
Diffusion Model Scientific Inference Treatment Effect Conformal Inference Individual Treatment Effect Treatment Effect Estimation Riemannian Diffusion

June 21, 2024

Enhancing reliability in prediction intervals using point forecasters: Heteroscedastic Quantile Regression and Width-Adaptive Conformal Inference
Carlos Sebastián, Carlos E. González-Guillén, Jesús Juan
Prediction Interval Conformal Inference Wind Power Forecasting Heteroscedastic Regression Electricity Price Forecasting Point Forecasting

June 14, 2024

Large language model validity via enhanced conformal prediction methods
John J. Cherian, Isaac Gibbs, Emmanuel J. Candès
Large Language Model Conformal Prediction Conformal Inference

May 23, 2024

Conformal Classification with Equalized Coverage for Adaptively Selected Groups
Yanfei Zhou, Matteo Sesia
Algorithmic Fairness Prediction Set Conformal Inference Conformal Classification

May 20, 2024

Conformal Counterfactual Inference under Hidden Confounding
Zonghao Chen, Ruocheng Guo, Jean-François Ton, Yang Liu
Causal Inference High Quality Counterfactuals Observational Data Conformal Inference Latent Confounding Counterfactual World

May 14, 2024

The Pitfalls and Promise of Conformal Inference Under Adversarial Attacks
Ziquan Liu, Yufei Cui, Yan Yan, Yi Xu, Xiangyang Ji, Xue Liu, Antoni B. Chan
Adversarial Attack Adversarial Training Adversarial Robustness Common Pitfall Promise Conformal Inference Robust Adversarial

April 3, 2024

On-line conformalized neural networks ensembles for probabilistic forecasting of day-ahead electricity prices
Alessandro Brusaferri, Andrea Ballarino, Luigi Grossi, Fabrizio Laurini
Probabilistic Forecast Online Service Conformal Inference Distributional Learning Day Ahead Neural Network Ensemble

February 19, 2024

Multi-View Conformal Learning for Heterogeneous Sensor Fusion
Enrique Garcia-Ceja
Multi View Conformal Prediction Statistical Guarantee Conformal Inference Data Fusion Conformal Meta Learner

February 12, 2024

Regression Trees for Fast and Adaptive Prediction Intervals
Luben M. C. Cabezas, Mateus P. Otto, Rafael Izbicki, Rafael B. Stern
Prediction Interval Conditional Density Conformal Inference Regression Tree Region Prediction Conformal Score Arbitrary Machine Learning Model

February 7, 2024

Bellman Conformal Inference: Calibrating Prediction Intervals For Time Series
Zitong Yang, Emmanuel Candès, Lihua Lei
Time Series Prediction Interval Conformal Inference

October 27, 2023

Transductive conformal inference with adaptive scores
Ulysse Gazin, Gilles Blanchard, Etienne Roquain
Conformal Inference Transductive Approach Transductive Transfer Learning Empirical Cumulative Distribution

October 19, 2023

PAC Prediction Sets Under Label Shift
Wenwen Si, Sangdon Park, Insup Lee, Edgar Dobriban, Osbert Bastani
Human Prediction Prediction Set Label Shift Conformal Inference

October 12, 2023

Conformal inference for regression on Riemannian Manifolds
Alejandro Cholaquidis, Fabrice Gamboa, Leonardo Moreno
Novel Regression Regression Task Covariance Matrix Prediction Set Riemannian Manifold Conformal Inference

October 4, 2023

Conformal Predictions for Longitudinal Data
Devesh Batra, Salvatore Mercuri, Raad Khraishi
Conformal Prediction Conformal Inference Longitudinal Data

September 18, 2023

Mutual Information-calibrated Conformal Feature Fusion for Uncertainty-Aware Multimodal 3D Object Detection at the Edge
Alex C. Stutts, Danilo Erricolo, Sathya Ravi, Theja Tulabandhula, Amit Ranjan Trivedi
3D Object Detection Uncertainty Quantification Extreme Edge Predictive Uncertainty Conformal Inference Conformal Regression Free Uncertainty