High Uncertainty Anticipation
High uncertainty anticipation focuses on developing methods to accurately quantify and manage uncertainty in model predictions across diverse fields, aiming to improve the reliability and trustworthiness of AI systems. Current research emphasizes integrating uncertainty estimation into various model architectures, including neural networks, diffusion models, and graph neural networks, often employing techniques like Bayesian methods, conformal prediction, and ensemble methods. This work is crucial for deploying AI in high-stakes applications like healthcare, autonomous driving, and finance, where reliable uncertainty quantification is paramount for safe and effective decision-making.
Papers
From Loops to Oops: Fallback Behaviors of Language Models Under Uncertainty
Maor Ivgi, Ori Yoran, Jonathan Berant, Mor Geva
Interpretability of Uncertainty: Exploring Cortical Lesion Segmentation in Multiple Sclerosis
Nataliia Molchanova, Alessandro Cagol, Pedro M. Gordaliza, Mario Ocampo-Pineda, Po-Jui Lu, Matthias Weigel, Xinjie Chen, Adrien Depeursinge, Cristina Granziera, Henning Müller, Meritxell Bach Cuadra
The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction Challenge: Predicting the Number of Fatalities in Armed Conflict, with Uncertainty
Håvard Hegre, Paola Vesco, Michael Colaresi, Jonas Vestby, Alexa Timlick, Noorain Syed Kazmi, Friederike Becker, Marco Binetti, Tobias Bodentien, Tobias Bohne, Patrick T. Brandt, Thomas Chadefaux, Simon Drauz, Christoph Dworschak, Vito D'Orazio, Cornelius Fritz, Hannah Frank, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, Sonja Häffner, Martin Hofer, Finn L. Klebe, Luca Macis, Alexandra Malaga, Marius Mehrl, Nils W. Metternich, Daniel Mittermaier, David Muchlinski, Hannes Mueller, Christian Oswald, Paola Pisano, David Randahl, Christopher Rauh, Lotta Rüter, Thomas Schincariol, Benjamin Seimon, Elena Siletti, Marco Tagliapietra, Chandler Thornhill, Johan Vegelius, Julian Walterskirchen
Learning Graph Structures and Uncertainty for Accurate and Calibrated Time-series Forecasting
Harshavardhan Kamarthi, Lingkai Kong, Alexander Rodriguez, Chao Zhang, B Aditya Prakash
Certainly Uncertain: A Benchmark and Metric for Multimodal Epistemic and Aleatoric Awareness
Khyathi Raghavi Chandu, Linjie Li, Anas Awadalla, Ximing Lu, Jae Sung Park, Jack Hessel, Lijuan Wang, Yejin Choi