Jury Theorem

The Condorcet Jury Theorem explores how the accuracy of collective decision-making improves with group size, assuming individual voters are more likely to be correct than incorrect. Current research investigates the theorem's applicability beyond simple majority voting, examining scenarios with abstention, varying voter competence, and hierarchical decision structures (e.g., "chairs" weighting reviewer opinions). This work is relevant to diverse fields, including sentiment analysis using large language models and expert systems, where understanding the limitations of independence and optimal aggregation strategies is crucial for improving accuracy and reliability. The theorem's robustness under various conditions, particularly when individual judgments are not perfectly independent, remains a key area of investigation.