Model Uncertainty

Model uncertainty, encompassing both aleatoric (irreducible) and epistemic (reducible) sources of error, is a critical area of research aiming to improve the reliability and trustworthiness of machine learning models. Current efforts focus on quantifying and decomposing these uncertainties across various model architectures, including deep neural networks, boosted trees, and Bayesian methods, often employing techniques like Monte Carlo dropout, ensembles, and conformal prediction. Understanding and effectively managing model uncertainty is crucial for building robust and safe AI systems, particularly in high-stakes applications like healthcare, finance, and climate modeling, where reliable predictions are paramount. This improved understanding facilitates better decision-making under uncertainty and enhances the overall trustworthiness of AI-driven insights.

Papers

December 1, 2023

Consensus group decision making under model uncertainty with a view towards environmental policy making
Phoebe Koundouri, Georgios I. Papayiannis, Electra V. Petracou, Athanasios N. Yannacopoulos
Model Uncertainty Consensus Group Decision Best View Barycenter Driven Localization

November 28, 2023

A personalized Uncertainty Quantification framework for patient survival models: estimating individual uncertainty of patients with metastatic brain tumors in the absence of ground truth
Yuqi Wang, Aarzu Gupta, David Carpenter, Trey Mullikin, Zachary J. Reitman, Scott Floyd, John Kirkpatrick, Joseph K. Salama, Paul W. Sperduto, Jian-Guo Liu, Mustafa R. Bashir, Kyle J. Lafata
Model Uncertainty Patient Friendly Language Brain Metastasis Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy

November 20, 2023

Uncertainty Estimation in Contrast-Enhanced MR Image Translation with Multi-Axis Fusion
Ivo M. Baltruschat, Parvaneh Janbakhshi, Melanie Dohmen, Matthias Lenga
Uncertainty Estimation Model Uncertainty Volumetric Data

November 5, 2023

Uncertainty Estimation for Safety-critical Scene Segmentation via Fine-grained Reward Maximization
Hongzheng Yang, Cheng Chen, Yueyao Chen, Markus Scheppach, Hon Chi Yip, Qi Dou
Fine Grained Uncertainty Estimation Vision Based Model Uncertainty Scene Segmentation Reward Ambiguity Surgical Scene Segmentation

October 30, 2023

October 19, 2023

A Deep Learning Analysis of Climate Change, Innovation, and Uncertainty
Michael Barnett, William Brock, Lars Peter Hansen, Ruimeng Hu, Joseph Huang
High Uncertainty Anticipation Model Uncertainty Digital Innovation Climate Change Atmospheric Dynamic Climate Economic

October 4, 2023

Assessment of Prediction Intervals Using Uncertainty Characteristics Curves
Jiri Navratil, Benjamin Elder, Matthew Arnold, Soumya Ghosh, Prasanna Sattigeri
Direct Assessment Model Uncertainty Prediction Interval Uncertainty Expression

October 3, 2023

Distributionally Safe Reinforcement Learning under Model Uncertainty: A Single-Level Approach by Differentiable Convex Programming
Alaa Eddine Chriat, Chuangchuang Sun
Reinforcement Learning Model Uncertainty Safety Constraint Single Stage Differentiable Convex

September 16, 2023

DOMAIN: MilDly COnservative Model-BAsed OfflINe Reinforcement Learning
Xiao-Yin Liu, Xiao-Hu Zhou, Xiao-Liang Xie, Shi-Qi Liu, Zhen-Qiu Feng, Hao Li, Mei-Jiang Gui, Tian-Yu Xiang, De-Xing Huang, Zeng-Guang Hou
Reinforcement Learning Model Based Reinforcement Learning Model Uncertainty Internet Service Domain Model Based Offline Reinforcement Learning

September 6, 2023

On the Impact of Feeding Cost Risk in Aquaculture Valuation and Decision Making
Christian Oliver Ewald, Kevin Kamm
Global Impact Decision Making Model Uncertainty Aquaculture System Stochastic Behavior

August 8, 2023

ScatterUQ: Interactive Uncertainty Visualizations for Multiclass Deep Learning Problems
Harry Li, Steven Jorgensen, John Holodnak, Allan Wollaber
Model Uncertainty Class Probability Uncertainty Visualization Uncertainty Aware Deep Learning Uncertainty Estimation Performance

August 6, 2023

Building Safe and Reliable AI systems for Safety Critical Tasks with Vision-Language Processing
Shuang Ao
Artificial Intelligence Uncertainty Quantification Model Uncertainty Accurate Uncertainty System Safety Safety Critical Task

July 5, 2023

A probabilistic, data-driven closure model for RANS simulations with aleatoric, model uncertainty
Atul Agrawal, Phaedon-Stelios Koutsourelakis
Model Uncertainty Aleatoric Uncertainty Closure Model Non Gaussian Aleatoric Uncertainty Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes Reynolds Stress

July 2, 2023

Data-Driven Probabilistic Energy Consumption Estimation for Battery Electric Vehicles with Model Uncertainty
Ayan Maity, Sudeshna Sarkar
Model Uncertainty Energy Prediction Vehicle Energy Consumption

June 23, 2023

Physics-constrained Random Forests for Turbulence Model Uncertainty Estimation
Marcel Matha, Christian Morsbach
Random Forest Epistemic Uncertainty Model Uncertainty High Uncertainty Value Prediction Confidence Turbulence Model Process Simulation

June 9, 2023

June 1, 2023

Quantifying Deep Learning Model Uncertainty in Conformal Prediction
Hamed Karimi, Reza Samavi
Uncertainty Quantification Conformal Prediction Model Uncertainty Predictive Uncertainty Computational Uncertainty Deep Learning Model Uncertainty

May 25, 2023

Gaussian Processes with State-Dependent Noise for Stochastic Control
Marcel Menner, Karl Berntorp
Gaussian Process Model Uncertainty Stochastic Control Dependent Noise

Model Uncertainty

Papers

Consensus group decision making under model uncertainty with a view towards environmental policy making

A personalized Uncertainty Quantification framework for patient survival models: estimating individual uncertainty of patients with metastatic brain tumors in the absence of ground truth

Uncertainty Estimation in Contrast-Enhanced MR Image Translation with Multi-Axis Fusion

Uncertainty Estimation for Safety-critical Scene Segmentation via Fine-grained Reward Maximization

Can input reconstruction be used to directly estimate uncertainty of a regression U-Net model? -- Application to proton therapy dose prediction for head and neck cancer patients

Model Uncertainty based Active Learning on Tabular Data using Boosted Trees

A Deep Learning Analysis of Climate Change, Innovation, and Uncertainty

Assessment of Prediction Intervals Using Uncertainty Characteristics Curves

Distributionally Safe Reinforcement Learning under Model Uncertainty: A Single-Level Approach by Differentiable Convex Programming

DOMAIN: MilDly COnservative Model-BAsed OfflINe Reinforcement Learning

On the Impact of Feeding Cost Risk in Aquaculture Valuation and Decision Making

ScatterUQ: Interactive Uncertainty Visualizations for Multiclass Deep Learning Problems

Building Safe and Reliable AI systems for Safety Critical Tasks with Vision-Language Processing

A probabilistic, data-driven closure model for RANS simulations with aleatoric, model uncertainty

Data-Driven Probabilistic Energy Consumption Estimation for Battery Electric Vehicles with Model Uncertainty

Physics-constrained Random Forests for Turbulence Model Uncertainty Estimation

Conformalizing Machine Translation Evaluation

Consistent Explanations in the Face of Model Indeterminacy via Ensembling

Quantifying Deep Learning Model Uncertainty in Conformal Prediction

Gaussian Processes with State-Dependent Noise for Stochastic Control