Prediction Challenge

Prediction challenges involve developing and evaluating models that forecast various outcomes, ranging from conflict fatalities to user engagement on social media platforms. Current research focuses on comparing the performance of diverse models, including rule-based systems, supervised machine learning, and large language models, often within the context of specific datasets and evaluation metrics. These challenges drive advancements in model architecture and algorithm design, ultimately improving the accuracy and reliability of predictions across diverse domains, with applications ranging from conflict analysis to educational technology and personalized recommendations. The resulting insights contribute to a deeper understanding of complex systems and inform more effective decision-making.

Papers

July 8, 2024

The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction Challenge: Predicting the Number of Fatalities in Armed Conflict, with Uncertainty
Håvard Hegre, Paola Vesco, Michael Colaresi, Jonas Vestby, Alexa Timlick, Noorain Syed Kazmi, Friederike Becker, Marco Binetti, Tobias Bodentien, Tobias Bohne, Patrick T. Brandt, Thomas Chadefaux, Simon Drauz, Christoph Dworschak, Vito D'Orazio, Cornelius Fritz, Hannah Frank, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, Sonja Häffner, Martin Hofer, Finn L. Klebe, Luca Macis, Alexandra Malaga, Marius Mehrl, Nils W. Metternich, Daniel Mittermaier, David Muchlinski, Hannes Mueller, Christian Oswald, Paola Pisano, David Randahl, Christopher Rauh, Lotta Rüter, Thomas Schincariol, Benjamin Seimon, Elena Siletti, Marco Tagliapietra, Chandler Thornhill, Johan Vegelius, Julian Walterskirchen
High Uncertainty Anticipation Numerical Data Forecasting Model Prediction Challenge Armed Conflict Prediction Window

January 3, 2024

Predicting challenge moments from students' discourse: A comparison of GPT-4 to two traditional natural language processing approaches
Wannapon Suraworachet, Jennifer Seon, Mutlu Cukurova
Natural Language Processing GPT 4 Machine Learning Algorithm Collaborative Learning Student Friendly Knowledge Box Dimension Discourse Level Efficient Collaboration Prediction Challenge

September 22, 2023

Diagnosing and exploiting the computational demands of videos games for deep reinforcement learning
Lakshmi Narasimhan Govindarajan, Rex G Liu, Drew Linsley, Alekh Karkada Ashok, Max Reuter, Michael J Frank, Thomas Serre
Deep Reinforcement Learning Video Game Visual Representation Learning Computational Demand Prediction Challenge

April 11, 2022

Fusion of Self-supervised Learned Models for MOS Prediction
Zhengdong Yang, Wangjin Zhou, Chenhui Chu, Sheng Li, Raj Dabre, Raphael Rubino, Yi Zhao
Automatic Speech Recognition Hybrid Fusion Synthesized Speech Self Supervised Model Wav2vec U Mean Opinion Score Prediction Challenge

December 26, 2021

Will You Dance To The Challenge? Predicting User Participation of TikTok Challenges
Lynnette Hui Xian Ng, John Yeh Han Tan, Darryl Jing Heng Tan, Roy Ka-Wei Lee
Challenge Task Specific Audience TikTok Video Truncated Contagion Map Prediction Challenge

December 7, 2021

State-of-the-art predictive and prescriptive analytics for IEEE CIS 3rd Technical Challenge
Mahdi Abolghasemi, Rasul Esmaeilbeigi
State of the Art Optimization Process Prescriptive Analytics Prediction Challenge

Prediction Challenge

Papers

The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction Challenge: Predicting the Number of Fatalities in Armed Conflict, with Uncertainty

Predicting challenge moments from students' discourse: A comparison of GPT-4 to two traditional natural language processing approaches

Diagnosing and exploiting the computational demands of videos games for deep reinforcement learning

Fusion of Self-supervised Learned Models for MOS Prediction

Will You Dance To The Challenge? Predicting User Participation of TikTok Challenges

State-of-the-art predictive and prescriptive analytics for IEEE CIS 3rd Technical Challenge