Solar Forecasting

Solar forecasting aims to accurately predict solar irradiance and power generation, crucial for integrating solar energy into power grids and mitigating its inherent variability. Current research heavily utilizes machine learning, employing diverse architectures like transformers, residual networks, and diffusion models, often combined with numerical weather prediction and satellite imagery data to improve forecast accuracy and reliability across various time horizons (from minutes to days). These advancements are vital for enhancing grid stability, optimizing energy management, and improving the overall efficiency and integration of solar power sources. A key focus is developing robust models that handle data scarcity, particularly for newly installed solar plants, and accurately quantify forecast uncertainty.

Papers

November 17, 2024

Distributed solar generation forecasting using attention-based deep neural networks for cloud movement prediction
Maneesha Perera, Julian De Hoog, Kasun Bandara, Saman Halgamuge
Neural Network Attention Based Weather Forecasting Solar Generation Cloud Classification Solar Forecasting

August 20, 2024

Inverse Deep Learning Ray Tracing for Heliostat Surface Prediction
Jan Lewen, Max Pargmann, Mehdi Cherti, Jenia Jitsev, Robert Pitz-Paal, Daniel Maldonado Quinto
Calibration Performance Neural Inverse Rendering Surface Parameterization Solar Forecasting Solar Radiation Specular Surface

June 22, 2024

Enhancing Solar Driver Forecasting with Multivariate Transformers
Sergio Sanchez-Hurtado, Victor Rodriguez-Fernandez, Julia Briden, Peng Mun Siew, Richard Linares
Solar Forecasting Time Series Transformer

May 23, 2024

Extreme Solar Flare Prediction Using Residual Networks with HMI Magnetograms and Intensitygrams
Juyoung Yun, Jungmin Shin
Solar Flare Solar Forecasting Intensity Feature

April 3, 2024

Solar synthetic imaging: Introducing denoising diffusion probabilistic models on SDO/AIA data
Francesco P. Ramunno, S. Hackstein, V. Kinakh, M. Drozdova, G. Quetant, A. Csillaghy, S. Voloshynovskiy
Diffusion Explainer Probabilistic Model Solar Flare Solar Dynamic Observatory Solar Forecasting Flare Prediction Solar Data

February 8, 2024

FusionSF: Fuse Heterogeneous Modalities in a Vector Quantized Framework for Robust Solar Power Forecasting
Ziqing Ma, Wenwei Wang, Tian Zhou, Chao Chen, Bingqing Peng, Liang Sun, Rong Jin
Zero Shot Solar Power Solar Forecasting Multi Energy Heterogeneous Modality

June 20, 2023

SkyGPT: Probabilistic Short-term Solar Forecasting Using Synthetic Sky Videos from Physics-constrained VideoGPT
Yuhao Nie, Eric Zelikman, Andea Scott, Quentin Paletta, Adam Brandt
Synthetic Video Solar Forecasting Probabilistic Solar

June 1, 2023

Improving day-ahead Solar Irradiance Time Series Forecasting by Leveraging Spatio-Temporal Context
Oussama Boussif, Ghait Boukachab, Dan Assouline, Stefano Massaroli, Tianle Yuan, Loubna Benabbou, Yoshua Bengio
Spatio Temporal Context Solar Power Solar Irradiance Solar Forecasting Global Horizontal Irradiance

February 1, 2023

Diffusion Models for High-Resolution Solar Forecasts
Yusuke Hatanaka, Yannik Glaser, Geoff Galgon, Giuseppe Torri, Peter Sadowski
Diffusion Model Probabilistic Forecast Score Based Diffusion Model Solar Irradiance Meteorological Satellite Solar Forecasting

November 27, 2022

Open-Source Ground-based Sky Image Datasets for Very Short-term Solar Forecasting, Cloud Analysis and Modeling: A Comprehensive Survey
Yuhao Nie, Xiatong Li, Quentin Paletta, Max Aragon, Andea Scott, Adam Brandt
Comprehensive Survey Solar Forecasting Sky Image Datasets

November 3, 2022

Sky-image-based solar forecasting using deep learning with multi-location data: training models locally, globally or via transfer learning?
Yuhao Nie, Quentin Paletta, Andea Scott, Luis Martin Pomares, Guillaume Arbod, Sgouris Sgouridis, Joan Lasenby, Adam Brandt
Deep Learning Transfer Learning Training Model Solar Forecasting Sky Image Datasets Multi Site Data

August 22, 2022

A Meta-Analysis of Solar Forecasting Based on Skill Score
Thi Ngoc Nguyen, Felix Müsgens
Numerical Weather Prediction Meta Analysis Solar Forecasting Skill Assessment

July 2, 2022

SKIPP'D: a SKy Images and Photovoltaic Power Generation Dataset for Short-term Solar Forecasting
Yuhao Nie, Xiatong Li, Andea Scott, Yuchi Sun, Vignesh Venugopal, Adam Brandt
Astronomical Image Skip and Recover Generation Data Solar Forecasting

June 22, 2022

Multi-Resolution, Multi-Horizon Distributed Solar PV Power Forecasting with Forecast Combinations
Maneesha Perera, Julian De Hoog, Kasun Bandara, Saman Halgamuge
Generation Data Solar Forecasting Forecast Combination Photovoltaic Power Forecasting

December 28, 2021

A Moment in the Sun: Solar Nowcasting from Multispectral Satellite Data using Self-Supervised Learning
Akansha Singh Bansal, Trapit Bansal, David Irwin
Self Supervised Learning Temporal Moment Solar Irradiance Multispectral Data Solar Forecasting Solar Data Solar Nowcasting

December 9, 2021

Model-Agnostic Hybrid Numerical Weather Prediction and Machine Learning Paradigm for Solar Forecasting in the Tropics
Nigel Yuan Yun Ng, Harish Gopalan, Venugopalan S. G. Raghavan, Chin Chun Ooi
Numerical Weather Prediction Machine Learning Paradigm Solar Forecasting

Solar Forecasting

Papers

Distributed solar generation forecasting using attention-based deep neural networks for cloud movement prediction

Inverse Deep Learning Ray Tracing for Heliostat Surface Prediction

Enhancing Solar Driver Forecasting with Multivariate Transformers

Extreme Solar Flare Prediction Using Residual Networks with HMI Magnetograms and Intensitygrams

Solar synthetic imaging: Introducing denoising diffusion probabilistic models on SDO/AIA data

FusionSF: Fuse Heterogeneous Modalities in a Vector Quantized Framework for Robust Solar Power Forecasting

SkyGPT: Probabilistic Short-term Solar Forecasting Using Synthetic Sky Videos from Physics-constrained VideoGPT

Improving day-ahead Solar Irradiance Time Series Forecasting by Leveraging Spatio-Temporal Context

Diffusion Models for High-Resolution Solar Forecasts

Open-Source Ground-based Sky Image Datasets for Very Short-term Solar Forecasting, Cloud Analysis and Modeling: A Comprehensive Survey

Sky-image-based solar forecasting using deep learning with multi-location data: training models locally, globally or via transfer learning?

A Meta-Analysis of Solar Forecasting Based on Skill Score

SKIPP'D: a SKy Images and Photovoltaic Power Generation Dataset for Short-term Solar Forecasting

Multi-Resolution, Multi-Horizon Distributed Solar PV Power Forecasting with Forecast Combinations

A Moment in the Sun: Solar Nowcasting from Multispectral Satellite Data using Self-Supervised Learning

Model-Agnostic Hybrid Numerical Weather Prediction and Machine Learning Paradigm for Solar Forecasting in the Tropics