State of the Art Forecasting
State-of-the-art forecasting research focuses on improving the accuracy and robustness of predictions across diverse domains, from financial markets and climate modeling to traffic flow and network security. Current efforts concentrate on developing advanced model architectures, including transformers, recurrent neural networks (RNNs), and graph neural networks (GNNs), often incorporating techniques like flow matching, variational mode decomposition, and disentangled dependency encoding to better capture complex temporal and spatial relationships within data. These advancements are crucial for enhancing decision-making in various sectors, particularly where accurate predictions of future events are essential for risk mitigation and resource optimization. Furthermore, research emphasizes improving the interpretability and efficiency of forecasting models, addressing challenges like data scarcity and out-of-distribution generalization.
Papers
Context is Key: A Benchmark for Forecasting with Essential Textual Information
Andrew Robert Williams, Arjun Ashok, Étienne Marcotte, Valentina Zantedeschi, Jithendaraa Subramanian, Roland Riachi, James Requeima, Alexandre Lacoste, Irina Rish, Nicolas Chapados, Alexandre Drouin
Large Language Models for Financial Aid in Financial Time-series Forecasting
Md Khairul Islam, Ayush Karmacharya, Timothy Sue, Judy Fox
TripCast: Pre-training of Masked 2D Transformers for Trip Time Series Forecasting
Yuhua Liao, Zetian Wang, Peng Wei, Qiangqiang Nie, Zhenhua Zhang
Forecasting Opioid Incidents for Rapid Actionable Data for Opioid Response in Kentucky
Aaron D. Mullen, Daniel Harris, Peter Rock, Svetla Slavova, Jeffery Talbert, V.K. Cody Bumgardner
Disease Outbreak Detection and Forecasting: A Review of Methods and Data Sources
Ghazaleh Babanejaddehaki, Aijun An, Manos Papagelis
Future-Guided Learning: A Predictive Approach To Enhance Time-Series Forecasting
Skye Gunasekaran, Assel Kembay, Hugo Ladret, Rui-Jie Zhu, Laurent Perrinet, Omid Kavehei, Jason Eshraghian
A Prompt Refinement-based Large Language Model for Metro Passenger Flow Forecasting under Delay Conditions
Ping Huang, Yuxin He, Hao Wang, Jingjing Chen, Qin Luo
A Scientific Machine Learning Approach for Predicting and Forecasting Battery Degradation in Electric Vehicles
Sharv Murgai, Hrishikesh Bhagwat, Raj Abhijit Dandekar, Rajat Dandekar, Sreedath Panat
XForecast: Evaluating Natural Language Explanations for Time Series Forecasting
Taha Aksu, Chenghao Liu, Amrita Saha, Sarah Tan, Caiming Xiong, Doyen Sahoo
Transfer Learning on Transformers for Building Energy Consumption Forecasting -- A Comparative Study
Robert Spencer, Surangika Ranathunga, Mikael Boulic, Andries van Heerden, Teo Susnjak
Multi-modal graph neural networks for localized off-grid weather forecasting
Qidong Yang, Jonathan Giezendanner, Daniel Salles Civitarese, Johannes Jakubik, Eric Schmitt, Anirban Chandra, Jeremy Vila, Detlef Hohl, Chris Hill, Campbell Watson, Sherrie Wang
Context Matters: Leveraging Contextual Features for Time Series Forecasting
Sameep Chattopadhyay, Pulkit Paliwal, Sai Shankar Narasimhan, Shubhankar Agarwal, Sandeep P. Chinchali
SIFM: A Foundation Model for Multi-granularity Arctic Sea Ice Forecasting
Jingyi Xu, Yeqi Luo, Weidong Yang, Keyi Liu, Shengnan Wang, Ben Fei, Lei Bai