Uncertainty Propagation

Uncertainty propagation focuses on accurately estimating the impact of input uncertainties on the outputs of complex systems, models, and algorithms. Current research emphasizes developing efficient and reliable methods for propagating uncertainty through various model architectures, including neural networks (e.g., Bayesian neural networks, Gaussian processes), and employing techniques like moment matching, polynomial chaos expansion, and conformal prediction. This field is crucial for enhancing the trustworthiness and reliability of AI-driven systems in safety-critical applications like aviation and autonomous vehicles, as well as improving the accuracy and robustness of scientific simulations and data analysis.

Papers

October 28, 2024

Error Bounds for Deep Learning-based Uncertainty Propagation in SDEs
Chun-Wei Kong, Luca Laurenti, Jay McMahon, Morteza Lahijanian
Physic Informed Neural Network Stochastic Differential Equation Error Bound Uncertainty Propagation Diffusion SDE Fokker Planck Equation

September 30, 2024

Certifying Guidance & Control Networks: Uncertainty Propagation to an Event Manifold
Sebastien Origer, Dario Izzo, Giacomo Acciarini, Francesco Biscani, Rita Mastroianni, Max Bannach, Harry Holt
Optimal Control Uncertainty Propagation Network Control Multi Concept Guidance

July 14, 2024

Risks of uncertainty propagation in Al-augmented security pipelines
Emanuele Mezzi, Aurora Papotti, Fabio Massacci, Katja Tuma
AI System Risk Sensitive AI Technology Uncertainty Propagation Safety Critical Domain Augmented Intelligence

June 6, 2024

Deterministic Uncertainty Propagation for Improved Model-Based Offline Reinforcement Learning
Abdullah Akgül, Manuel Haußmann, Melih Kandemir
Large Relevance Improvement Model Based Offline Reinforcement Learning Uncertainty Propagation Reliable Uncertainty Uncertainty Sampling Reward Ambiguity Model Based Policy

May 2, 2024

LOG-LIO2: A LiDAR-Inertial Odometry with Efficient Uncertainty Analysis
Kai Huang, Junqiao Zhao, Jiaye Lin, Zhongyang Zhu, Shuangfu Song, Chen Ye, Tiantian Feng
LiDAR Inertial Odometry Uncertainty Propagation Uncertainty Modeling Efficient Uncertainty Estimation System Uncertainty

April 24, 2024

MD-NOMAD: Mixture density nonlinear manifold decoder for emulating stochastic differential equations and uncertainty propagation
Akshay Thakur, Souvik Chakraborty
Neural Network Neural Operator Stochastic Differential Equation Uncertainty Propagation Mixture Weight Nonlinear Manifold Decoder

April 17, 2024

Analytical results for uncertainty propagation through trained machine learning regression models
Andrew Thompson
Machine Learning New Machine Uncertainty Quantification Regression Model Uncertainty Propagation Experimental Result Model Metrology

March 31, 2024

Conditional Pseudo-Reversible Normalizing Flow for Surrogate Modeling in Quantifying Uncertainty Propagation
Minglei Yang, Pengjun Wang, Ming Fan, Dan Lu, Yanzhao Cao, Guannan Zhang
Normalizing Flow Surrogate Model Surrogate Modeling Conditional Reasoning Uncertainty Propagation

February 21, 2024

Improving Efficiency of Iso-Surface Extraction on Implicit Neural Representations Using Uncertainty Propagation
Haoyu Li, Han-Wei Shen
Uncertainty Propagation Enhancing Efficiency Range Query Iso Surface Extraction

February 17, 2024

Data-Driven Stochastic AC-OPF using Gaussian Processes
Mile Mitrovic
Gaussian Process Optimal Power Flow Uncertainty Propagation Power Flow

December 30, 2023

DiffHybrid-UQ: Uncertainty Quantification for Differentiable Hybrid Neural Modeling
Deepak Akhare, Tengfei Luo, Jian-Xun Wang
Uncertainty Quantification Hybrid Model Hybrid Deep Learning Uncertainty Propagation Hybrid Neural Network

December 10, 2023

Uncertainty Propagation through Trained Deep Neural Networks Using Factor Graphs
Angel Daruna, Yunye Gong, Abhinav Rajvanshi, Han-Pang Chiu, Yi Yao
Deep Neural Network Predictive Uncertainty Aleatoric Uncertainty Factor Graph Uncertainty Propagation

December 8, 2023

Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation in Surrogate-based Bayesian Inference
Philipp Reiser, Javier Enrique Aguilar, Anneli Guthke, Paul-Christian Bürkner
Uncertainty Quantification Surrogate Modeling Uncertainty Propagation Fast Propagation Probabilistic Surrogate Uncertainty Aware Surrogate Model

December 6, 2023

Uncertainty Propagation on Unimodular Matrix Lie Groups
Jikai Ye, Amitesh S. Jayaraman, Gregory S. Chirikjian
Uncertainty Propagation Equilibrium Propagation Adaptive Propagation Matrix Lie Group

November 6, 2023

Monocular UAV Localisation with Deep Learning and Uncertainty Propagation
Xueyan Oh, Ryan Lim, Leonard Loh, Chee How Tan, Shaohui Foong, U-Xuan Tan
Deep Learning Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Various Fast Moving Drone Localization Accuracy Uncertainty Propagation

October 28, 2023

A Stochastic Nonlinear Model Predictive Control with an Uncertainty Propagation Horizon for Autonomous Vehicle Motion Control
Baha Zarrouki, Chenyang Wang, Johannes Betz
Optimal Trajectory Uncertainty Propagation Autonomous Vehicle Control Stochastic Nonlinear Model Predictive Control

October 24, 2023

GUPNet++: Geometry Uncertainty Propagation Network for Monocular 3D Object Detection
Yan Lu, Xinzhu Ma, Lei Yang, Tianzhu Zhang, Yating Liu, Qi Chu, Tong He, Yonghui Li, Wanli Ouyang
3D Detection Monocular 3D Object Detection Uncertainty Propagation Perspective Projection Depth Estimation Error Geometric Uncertainty

October 16, 2023

Accurate Data-Driven Surrogates of Dynamical Systems for Forward Propagation of Uncertainty
Saibal De, Reese E. Jones, Hemanth Kolla
High Uncertainty Anticipation Dynamical System Surrogate Model Nonlinear Dynamic Backward Propagation Uncertainty Propagation Data Driven Surrogate Collocation Point Surrogate Dynamic

October 7, 2023

AirIMU: Learning Uncertainty Propagation for Inertial Odometry
Yuheng Qiu, Chen Wang, Can Xu, Yutian Chen, Xunfei Zhou, Youjie Xia, Sebastian Scherer
Inertial Measurement Unit Uncertainty Propagation Inertial Odometry

September 19, 2023

Monte-Carlo tree search with uncertainty propagation via optimal transport
Tuan Dam, Pascal Stenger, Lukas Schneider, Joni Pajarinen, Carlo D'Eramo, Odalric-Ambrym Maillard
Markov Decision Process Optimal Transport Monte Carlo Tree Search Uncertainty Propagation Operator Selection

Uncertainty Propagation

Papers

Error Bounds for Deep Learning-based Uncertainty Propagation in SDEs

Certifying Guidance & Control Networks: Uncertainty Propagation to an Event Manifold

Risks of uncertainty propagation in Al-augmented security pipelines

Deterministic Uncertainty Propagation for Improved Model-Based Offline Reinforcement Learning

LOG-LIO2: A LiDAR-Inertial Odometry with Efficient Uncertainty Analysis

MD-NOMAD: Mixture density nonlinear manifold decoder for emulating stochastic differential equations and uncertainty propagation

Analytical results for uncertainty propagation through trained machine learning regression models

Conditional Pseudo-Reversible Normalizing Flow for Surrogate Modeling in Quantifying Uncertainty Propagation

Improving Efficiency of Iso-Surface Extraction on Implicit Neural Representations Using Uncertainty Propagation

Data-Driven Stochastic AC-OPF using Gaussian Processes

DiffHybrid-UQ: Uncertainty Quantification for Differentiable Hybrid Neural Modeling

Uncertainty Propagation through Trained Deep Neural Networks Using Factor Graphs

Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation in Surrogate-based Bayesian Inference

Uncertainty Propagation on Unimodular Matrix Lie Groups

Monocular UAV Localisation with Deep Learning and Uncertainty Propagation

A Stochastic Nonlinear Model Predictive Control with an Uncertainty Propagation Horizon for Autonomous Vehicle Motion Control

GUPNet++: Geometry Uncertainty Propagation Network for Monocular 3D Object Detection

Accurate Data-Driven Surrogates of Dynamical Systems for Forward Propagation of Uncertainty

AirIMU: Learning Uncertainty Propagation for Inertial Odometry

Monte-Carlo tree search with uncertainty propagation via optimal transport