Paper ID: 2206.06584

Probabilistic Conformal Prediction Using Conditional Random Samples

Zhendong Wang, Ruijiang Gao, Mingzhang Yin, Mingyuan Zhou, David M. Blei

This paper proposes probabilistic conformal prediction (PCP), a predictive inference algorithm that estimates a target variable by a discontinuous predictive set. Given inputs, PCP construct the predictive set based on random samples from an estimated generative model. It is efficient and compatible with either explicit or implicit conditional generative models. Theoretically, we show that PCP guarantees correct marginal coverage with finite samples. Empirically, we study PCP on a variety of simulated and real datasets. Compared to existing methods for conformal inference, PCP provides sharper predictive sets.

Submitted: Jun 14, 2022