Paper ID: 2405.03239

Deep Learning for Detecting and Early Predicting Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease from Spirogram Time Series

Shuhao Mei, Xin Li, Yuxi Zhou, Jiahao Xu, Yong Zhang, Yuxuan Wan, Shan Cao, Qinghao Zhao, Shijia Geng, Junqing Xie, Shengyong Chen, Shenda Hong

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is a chronic lung disease that causes airflow obstruction. Current methods can only detect COPD from prominent features in spirogram (Volume-Flow time series) but cannot predict future COPD risk from subtle data patterns. We propose a deep learning-based method, DeepSpiro, for early prediction of future COPD risk. DeepSpiro consists of four key components: SpiroSmoother for stabilizing the Volume-Flow curve, SpiroEncoder for capturing volume evolution through key patches of varying lengths, SpiroExplainer for integrating heterogeneous data and explaining predictions through volume attention, and SpiroPredictor for predicting the disease risk of undiagnosed high-risk patients based on key patch concavity, with prediction horizons of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 years, or even longer. Evaluated on the UK Biobank dataset, DeepSpiro achieved an AUC of 0.8328 for COPD detection and demonstrated strong predictive performance for future COPD risk (p-value < 0.001). DeepSpiro effectively predicts the long-term progression of the disease.

Submitted: May 6, 2024