Paper ID: 2408.12795

From Mobilisation to Radicalisation: Probing the Persistence and Radicalisation of Social Movements Using an Agent-Based Model

Emma F. Thomas, Mengbin Ye, Simon D. Angus, Tony J. Mathew, Winnifred Louis, Liam Walsh, Silas Ellery, Morgana Lizzio-Wilson, Craig McGarty

We are living in an age of protest. Although we have an excellent understanding of the factors that predict participation in protest, we understand little about the conditions that foster a sustained (versus transient) movement. How do interactions between supporters and authorities combine to influence whether and how people engage (i.e., using conventional or radical tactics)? This paper introduces a novel, theoretically-founded and empirically-informed agent-based model (DIMESim) to address these questions. We model the complex interactions between the psychological attributes of the protester (agents), the authority to whom the protests are targeted, and the environment that allows protesters to coordinate with each other -- over time, and at a population scale. Where an authority is responsive and failure is contested, a modest sized conventional movement endured. Where authorities repeatedly and incontrovertibly fail the movement, the population disengaged from action but evidenced an ongoing commitment to radicalism (latent radicalism).

Submitted: Aug 23, 2024