Propheticus: Machine Learning Framework for the Development of Predictive Models for Reliable and Secure Software
Authors: João R. Campos, Marco Vieira, Ernesto Costa
Organizations: DEI/CISUC, University of Coimbra, Portugal
Abstract
The growing complexity of software calls for innovative solutions that support the deployment of reliable and secure software. Machine Learning (ML) has shown its applicability to various complex problems and is frequently used in the dependability domain, both for supporting systems design and verification activities. However, using ML is complex and highly dependent on the problem in hand, increasing the probability of mistakes that compromise the results. In this paper, we introduce Propheticus, a ML framework that can be used to create predictive models for reliable and secure software systems. Propheticus attempts to abstract the complexity of ML whilst being easy to use and accommodating the needs of the users. To demonstrate its use, we present two case studies (vulnerability prediction and online failure prediction) that show how it can considerably ease and expedite a thorough ML workflow.
Large language models (LLMs) now support automated software security tasks, including vulnerability discovery and proof-of-concept (PoC) generation. Existing benchmarks do not faithfully evaluate LLMs in real-world bug hunting scenarios because they rely on fuzzing harnesses, target-specific descriptions, or vulnerability-reproduction tasks. We present SEC-bench Pro, a benchmark for measuring agent bug hunting on critical, high-complexity software systems. This work discloses reports with concrete PoC inputs and links fixes into reproducible tasks through a three-phase pipeline for vulnerability collection, environment reconstruction, and oracle-based validation. We instantiate SEC-bench Pro with 183 validated vulnerabilities across V8 and SpiderMonkey, including a V8 subset with more than $1.5 million in cumulative Google Vulnerability Reward Program awards. These instances span memory-safety, sandbox, JIT, and race-condition bugs under browser-grade and runtime-grade execution conditions. Our evaluation shows that coding agents with frontier models remain below 40% success on both evaluated engines. The open-weight Kimi-K2.6 baseline reaches 11.7% on V8, while the strongest frontier configuration reaches 32.0% on V8 and 38.8% on SpiderMonkey. ClaudeCode and Codex solve complementary instance sets, and their two-agent union reaches 37.9% on V8 and 48.8% on SpiderMonkey. SEC-bench Pro provides robust environments for assessing LLM-based security agents and exposes limitations in long-horizon bug hunting tasks.
Complex events originate from other primitive events combined according to defined patterns and rules. Instead of using specialists' manual work to compose the model rules, we use machine learning (ML) to self-define these patterns and regulations based on incoming input data to produce the desired complex event. Complex events processing (CEP) uncertainty is critical for embedded and safety-critical systems. This paper exemplifies how we can measure uncertainty for the perception and prediction of events, encompassing embedded systems that can also be critical to safety. Then, we propose an approach (ML_CP) incorporating ML and sensitivity analysis that verifies how the output varies according to each input parameter. Furthermore, our model also measures the uncertainty associated with the predicted complex event. Therefore, we use conformal prediction to build prediction intervals, as the model itself has uncertainties, and the data has noise. Also, we tested our approach with classification (binary and multi-level) and regression problems test cases. Finally, we present and discuss our results, which are very promising within our field of research and work.
The growing reliance on pre-trained Machine Learning (ML) models has introduced new attack surfaces. Recent vulnerabilities demonstrate that malicious behavior can be embedded within model artifacts, often bypassing existing defenses. Current model-scanning solutions primarily rely on static, format-specific rules or known attack signatures, which limit their ability to generalize across frameworks and to detect novel exploitation paths. In contrast, we propose a solution that focuses on the effects an attack has on the host system executing the model and builds on foundational intuitions about ML model execution. In particular, we observe that ML models operate within well-defined lifecycle phases and that, within each phase, interactions with the host system are highly structured and predictable. We translate these intuitions into Moat, a dynamic lifecycle-aware approach for securing ML model execution, and instantiate this design in Re-Moat, our reference implementation. We evaluate Re-Moat across multiple ML frameworks using 77,974 real-world model artifacts from the Hugging Face Hub, 31 Proofs-of-Concept (PoCs) from CVEs, and 334 models from a state-of-the-art dataset, and compare it against state-of-the-art model-scanning solutions. Our results show that our approach detects all evaluated attack classes while maintaining a close-to-zero false-positive rate, validating our intuitions and motivating dynamic analysis for securing ML model execution.
Gabriele Digregorio, Marco Di Gennaro, Francesco Pastore +3