Concentration inequalities for leave-one-out cross validation

We derive the asymptotic risk function of regularized empirical risk minimization (ERM) estimators tuned by $n$-fold cross-validation (CV). The out-of-sample prediction loss of such estimators converges in distribution to the squared-error loss (risk function) of shrinkage estimators in the normal means model, tuned by Stein's unbiased risk estimate (SURE). This risk function provides a more fine-grained picture of predictive performance than uniform bounds on worst-case regret, which are common in learning theory: it quantifies how risk varies with the true parameter. As key intermediate steps, we show that (i) $n$-fold CV converges uniformly to SURE, and (ii) while SURE typically has multiple local minima, its global minimum is generically well separated. Well-separation ensures that uniform convergence of CV to SURE translates into convergence of the tuning parameter chosen by CV to that chosen by SURE.

Uniform stability controls how much one training example can change the loss at any test point. A new logarithmic-free upper bound shows that a $γ$-uniformly stable algorithm with loss in $[0,L]$ has generalization gap at most $O \left(γ\log(1/δ) +L\sqrt{\frac{\log(1/δ)}{n}}\right)$ with probability $1-δ$. Whether an actual bounded-loss learning algorithm can realize the linear dependence on $\log(1/δ)$ has remained open. The known construction realizes it only for auxiliary weakly dependent random variables whose pointwise range grows with $n$. The known learning lower bound holds only at constant probability. We close this gap. For every $n$, stability level $γ$, and loss bound $L$, we construct one deterministic $γ$-uniformly stable learning problem whose tail satisfies, simultaneously for $1\le p\le c n$, $\mathbb P \left( R(A_S)-R_S(A_S) \ge c'\min \left\{L,γp+L\sqrt{p/n}\right\} \right)\ge e^{-p}.$ The construction is ordinary bounded absolute-loss regression with constant labels. Its key is a multiscale collection of rare Rademacher features. A coordinatewise ramp is stable in sup norm, while an odd symmetrized maximum converts a unique extreme feature into a gap of order $γp$ without violating the loss bound. Geometrically spaced ramps put all confidence levels into the same problem. Together with the logarithmic-free upper bound, this determines the optimal high-probability and moment dependence of uniform stability up to universal constants.

Cross-validation is one of the most widely used tools for risk estimation and model selection in statistics and machine learning, yet its theoretical properties when embedded in a learning procedure remain insufficiently understood. This paper develops a general, distribution-free framework for learning via model selection with cross-validation risk estimation within classical statistical learning theory. We establish VC dimension-based deviation bounds for the entire learning pipeline, providing detailed proofs for both bounded and unbounded loss functions, the latter requiring a novel extension of existing results. A central focus of the analysis is how the structure of the collection of candidate models influences generalization. To this end, we introduce Learning Spaces as collections of candidate models equipped with a partial order whose inclusion structure reflects increasing model complexity. We show how Learning Spaces can be constructed from domain knowledge and analyze how such structural information increases generalization. The framework is illustrated through case studies and a simulation study in high-dimensional linear regression, comparing learning via model selection in two distinct Learning Spaces against ordinary least squares, LASSO, and ridge regression across scenarios of varying alignment between prior knowledge and the true target. The results demonstrate that, when the Learning Space is well-adapted to the target and an efficient search algorithm is employed, learning via model selection can outperform standard methods by orders of magnitude. Through theoretical insights and concrete examples, we provide guidance on selecting the family of candidate models based on domain knowledge to enhance the performance of model selection with cross-validation.