Prediction Is All MoE Needs: Expert Load Distribution Goes from Fluctuating to Stabilizing

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models have gained popularity as a means of scaling the capacity of large language models (LLMs) while maintaining sparse activations and reduced per-token compute. However, in memory-constrained inference settings, expert weights must be offloaded to CPU, creating a performance bottleneck from CPU-GPU transfers during decoding. We propose an expert prefetching scheme that leverages currently computed internal model representations to speculate future experts, enabling memory transfers to overlap with computation. Across multiple MoE architectures, we demonstrate that future experts can be reliably predicted by these internal representations. We also demonstrate that executing speculated experts generally maintains downstream task accuracy, thus preserving more effective compute-memory overlap by eliminating the need to re-fetch true router-selected experts. Integrated into an optimized inference engine, our approach achieves up to 14% reduction in time per output token (TPOT) over on-demand loading of experts from CPU memory. For MoEs where speculative execution alone yields suboptimal accuracy, we further examine lightweight estimators that improve expert prediction hit rates, thereby reducing performance degradation. Our code is released in open-source at https://github.com/axonn-ai/yalis/tree/offload_prefetch.

We model Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) token routing as a congestion game with a single effective parameter, the congestion coefficient gamma_eff, that quantifies the balance-quality tradeoff. Tracking gamma_eff across training checkpoints of two open-source MoE models, OLMoE-1B-7B (20 checkpoints, with dense sampling in the surge region) and OpenMoE-8B (6 checkpoints), reveals a three-phase trajectory: a surge phase where the router learns to balance load (gamma_eff: 14 to 36-39, peaking in the step 30K-40K region), a stabilization phase where experts specialize under steady balance (B_0: 2.4 to 2.3, steps 100K-400K), and a relaxation phase where the router trades balance for quality as experts differentiate (gamma_eff: 27 to 9, steps 400K-1.2M). This non-monotone trajectory, invisible to post-hoc analysis of converged models, reveals that early MoE training prioritizes balance while late training prioritizes quality. The theoretical framework is honest about its limits: the single-type equilibrium reduces to temperature-scaled softmax (held-out L1: MFG = 0.199 vs. softmax = 0.200). The game is not a better predictor; it reveals what the temperature means and, critically, how that temperature evolves. We complement the dynamics with an effective congestion decomposition, a multi-type extension that improves load prediction via token clustering on all 16 layers (mean: 30%), scope diagnostics (K/M, epsilon_l), and robustness verification across four independent quality estimators (r >= 0.89). All confidence intervals are from bootstrap resampling over 50 independent text batches.

Most recent state-of-the-art (SOTA) large language models (LLMs) use Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures to scale model capacity without proportional per-token compute, enabling higher-quality outputs at manageable serving costs. However, MoE inference at scale is fundamentally bottlenecked by expert load imbalance and inefficient token routing, especially in multi-node deployments where tokens are not guaranteed to be routed to local experts, resulting in significant inter-node all-to-all communication overhead. To systematically characterize these challenges, we profile SOTA open-source MoE models, including Llama 4 Maverick, DeepSeek V3-671B, and Qwen3-230B-A22B, on various datasets and collected over 100k real expert activation traces. Upon studying the expert activation patterns, we uncover various persistent properties across all the frontier MoE models: variable expert load imbalance, domain-specific expert activation where expert popularity shifts across task families (code, math, chat, general), and a strong correlation between prefill and decode expert activations. Motivated by these findings, we propose workload-aware micro-batch grouping and an expert placement strategy to maximize token locality to the destination expert, thereby reducing inter-node communication. Across models and datasets, these optimizations help reduce all2all communication data up to 20, resulting in lower MoE decode latency and better accelerator utilization.