To Trust Or Not To Trust Your Vision-Language Model's Prediction

A calibrated Vision-Language Model (VLM) can repeatedly self-correct, say "Wait, I should recheck," arrive at the wrong answer, and still report high confidence. We find that this occurs because verbalized confidence is largely trajectory-independent in the VLMs and calibration methods we evaluate. We examine this through three complementary lenses: content variation, token masking, and the model's own hesitation markers. We show that confidence is insufficiently sensitive to what the reasoning trajectory actually contains, and that calibration training can paradoxically worsen this disconnect. Since existing metrics like ECE and AUROC cannot detect this problem, we propose the Trajectory-Grounding Score (TGS) in two complementary forms: TGS-self, which compares confidence with and without access to the model's own trajectory, and TGS-pair, which tests whether the model assigns higher confidence to correct trajectories than to flawed ones along the vision, reasoning, and answer axes. We propose TGS-Bench, a model-agnostic suite spanning 10 benchmarks with controlled good/bad trajectory pairs, and show that conventional calibration rankings diverge from trajectory-grounding rankings, exposing a blind spot in current evaluation practice.

Efficient transfer learning of vision-language models (VLMs) commonly suffers from a Base-New Trade-off (BNT): improving performance on unseen (new) classes often degrades accuracy on known (base) classes. Addressing how to boost recognition of unseen classes without sacrificing known-class performance remains a central challenge. Existing work often simplistically attributes the BNT to overfitting on known classes. We observe an interesting phenomenon: VLMs frequently exhibit asymmetric confusion on certain downstream data, i.e., samples of class A are systematically mispredicted as class B, while the reverse confusion (B to A) rarely occurs. For known classes, this kind of bias can be mitigated by tuning using a cross-entropy loss, but for unseen classes, such pretraining-induced bias persists and harms generalization. Motivated by this, we propose NeRP, a plug-and-play prompting correction strategy that improves discrimination on unseen classes without modifying model parameters. NeRP leverages neutral text prompts and reference images to measure class-wise prior preferences along the pre-trained inter-class geometry, and combines them with the sample likelihood to obtain the model's surrogate score. If, for a given sample, the prior strongly favors the current prediction while the observed evidence is clearly insufficient, we perform a local flip between easily confusable class pairs, thereby correcting prior-dominated mispredictions. Extensive experiments across multiple backbones and 15 few-shot and cross-domain benchmarks show that NeRP substantially improves accuracy on unseen classes while preserving known-class prediction performance.

Large Vision Language Models (LVLMs) achieve strong multimodal reasoning but frequently exhibit hallucinations and incorrect responses with high certainty, which hinders their usage in high-stakes domains. Existing verbalized confidence calibration methods, largely developed for text-only LLMs, typically optimize a single holistic confidence score using binary answer-level correctness. This design is mismatched to LVLMs: an incorrect prediction may arise from perceptual failures or from reasoning errors given correct perception, and a single confidence conflates these sources while visual uncertainty is often dominated by language priors. To address these issues, we propose VL-Calibration, a reinforcement learning framework that explicitly decouples confidence into visual and reasoning confidence. To supervise visual confidence without ground-truth perception labels, we introduce an intrinsic visual certainty estimation that combines (i) visual grounding measured by KL-divergence under image perturbations and (ii) internal certainty measured by token entropy. We further propose token-level advantage reweighting to focus optimization on tokens based on visual certainty, suppressing ungrounded hallucinations while preserving valid perception. Experiments on thirteen benchmarks show that VL-Calibration effectively improves calibration while boosting visual reasoning accuracy, and it generalizes to out-of-distribution benchmarks across model scales and architectures.