"Mirror" Large Language Model Evaluations of Depression are Criterion Contaminated
Authors: Tong Li, Rasiq Hussain, Mehak Gupta, Joshua R. Oltmanns
Abstract
Large Language Model (LLM) studies that use language responses elicited from depression assessments to predict scores on those same assessments often report near-perfect prediction of depression. We refer to these as "Mirror" evaluations and demonstrate an applied case of criterion contamination. N = 110 participants completed both structured diagnostic depression interviews (Mirror condition) and life history interviews ("Non-Mirror" condition). LLMs were prompted to predict depression scores in each condition. As expected, Mirror evaluations were near-perfect. However, Non-Mirror evaluations also displayed prediction sizes considered outstanding in psychology. Further, both Mirror and Non-Mirror predictions correlated with Patient Health Questionnaire-9 scores at similar sizes, suggesting the Mirror condition's advantage collapses when predicting an independent depression measurement. Topic modeling revealed differing depression-related themes across interview types. Mirror evaluations are better considered as reliability evaluations than as validity evaluations. Incorporating Non-Mirror approaches in LLM depression assessment may support more valid and clinically-relevant applications. Keywords: large language models, psychological assessment, psychopathology, depression, reliability, validity, criterion contamination
Dementia and depression are the most prevalent neuropsychiatric disorders in geriatric populations, and their overlapping symptoms pose major challenges for differential diagnosis. In this study, we investigate open-weights Large Language Models (LLMs) for predicting dementia and depression severity from speech samples collected during standardized history taking interviews with 154 German-speaking subjects. We introduce an observer-based Global Depression Scale (GDS-D) aligned with the established Global Deterioration Scale (GDS), enabling parallel global staging of affective and cognitive symptoms. We compare three LLMs (Mistral 3.1, DeepHermes, Qwen3) in two settings: (1) zero-shot prediction and (2) LLM-based feature extraction for Support Vector Regression, using human and pause-enriched transcripts. Results show that LLMs effectively predict depression severity in zero-shot settings (best MAE of 0.60), while dementia assessment benefits substantially from structured feature extraction (best MAE of 0.78), reducing errors by up to 35% over zero-shot baselines. Pause-enriched transcripts achieve competitive performance with human transcriptions, demonstrating the viability of fully automatic screening pipelines for differential neuropsychiatric assessment.
Franziska Braun, Alea Rüggeberg, Thomas Ranzenberger +4
LLMs can estimate Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) scores from speech in a zero-shot manner, but clinical deployment requires reliability across three dimensions: intra-model consistency, ASR robustness, and evidence faithfulness. We evaluate three LLMs (Phi-4, Gemma-2-9B, and Llama-3.1-8B) on 111 English-speaking participants using ground-truth transcripts and three Whisper ASR variants (Large, Medium, Small), with three independent runs per model-condition pair. We find that (i) Phi-4 and Gemma-2-9B achieve excellent intra-model consistency (ICC > 0.89) with minimal degradation under ASR; (ii) Llama-3.1-8B shows ASR-fragile consistency, with ICC dropping from 0.82 to 0.36 at 10% WER; (iii) predictive validity is largely preserved under ASR for robust models; and (iv) keyword groundedness exceeds 93% for Phi-4 and Gemma-2-9B but falls to 77-81% for Llama-3.1-8B. Inter-model keyword agreement is far lower than score-level agreement, revealing a score-evidence dissociation with implications for clinical interpretability.
Erfan Loweimi, Sofia de la Fuente Garcia, Samira Loveymi +2
Large language models are increasingly deployed to simulate patients for clinical training, research, and mental health tools, yet population-level validity remains largely untested. We introduce PsychBench, the first epidemiological audit of LLM patient simulation: 28,800 profiles from four frontier models (GPT-4o-mini, DeepSeek-V3, Gemini-3-Flash, GLM-4.7) evaluated against NHANES and NESARC-III baselines across 120 intersectional cohorts. The central finding is a coherence-fidelity dissociation: models produce clinically plausible individuals while misrepresenting the populations they are drawn from. Variance compression ranges from 14 percent (GLM-4.7) to 62 percent (DeepSeek-V3), eliminating the distributional tails of clinical reality. Despite test-retest correlations above r = 0.90, 36.66 percent of cases cross diagnostic thresholds between runs. Symptom correlation matrices diverge across demographic groups beyond split-half noise, with transgender populations diverging three to five times more than racial differences. Calibration bias is systematic and asymmetric. Models overestimate depression severity for most groups by 3.6 to 6.1 points (Cohen d = 1.13 to 1.91), consistent with training on clinical corpora with elevated base rates. For transgender women the direction inverts: models capture only 8 to 46 percent of documented minority stress elevation, yielding a -5.42 residual (d = -1.55). Models also attribute irritability to Black men and fatigue to women beyond matched controls, encoding racialized and gendered assumptions. Patterns replicate across US and Chinese architectures, indicating failures tied to current training paradigms rather than isolated implementations. For most users, LLM mental health tools risk pathologizing ordinary distress; for transgender users, algorithmic erasure of genuine need. The patients look right. They do not represent real populations.