Utilizing Earth Foundation Models to Enhance the Simulation Performance of Hydrological Models with AlphaEarth Embeddings

Geospatial foundation models compress multispectral observations into dense embeddings increasingly used in natural-language environmental reasoning systems. A single planetary-scale model, e.g. Google AlphaEarth, handles broad characterization well but may compromise on specialized hydrologic signals. Such generalist models are also often inaccessible, expensive, and require large-scale compute. We propose Mini-JEPAs: a fleet of small sensor-specialized Joint Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA) foundation models consulted by a routing agent for specialized questions. We pretrained five 22M-parameter Mini-JEPAs sharing an identical Vision Transformer backbone, JEPA recipe, and 64-d output space, using Sentinel-2 optical, Sentinel-1 SAR, MODIS thermal, multi-temporal Sentinel-2 phenology, and a topography-soil stack. Each Mini-JEPA reconstructs the variable matched to its sensor, with cross-validated $R^2$ reaching 0.97 for elevation, 0.97 for temperature, and 0.81 for precipitation. The five manifolds differ in geometric structure, with global participation ratios from 8.9 to 20.2 and local intrinsic dimensionalities from 2.3 to 9.0. Joint topography-soil and phenology models add predictive value beyond AlphaEarth alone for soil moisture, aridity, and precipitation ($ΔR^2$ up to 0.031). A router LLM reads per-modality references and selects appropriate sensors with a perfect hit rate over a curated question set. In paired LLM-as-Judge evaluation, dual retrieval over AlphaEarth and the routed fleet outperforms AlphaEarth alone on physics-matched questions (Cohen's $d = 1.10$, $p = 0.031$). Locally-trained Mini-JEPAs can be operationalized for hydrologic intelligence with modest compute.

Watershed networks exhibit convergent topologies in which multiple tributaries merge into downstream channels,integrating diverse upstream hydrological processes. In ungauged basins, the absence of direct observations increases uncertainty and limits the ability to anticipate extreme events. This study evaluates whether an encoder-only Transformer provides an advantage over an LSTM for upstream streamflow inference under limited hydrologic information, using retrospective simulations from the NOAA National Water Model (NWM). Across both upstream-only and combined configurations, the LSTM showed stronger overall performance than the Transformer model across the two configurations. Incorporating downstream information further boosted performance for all models, increasing median NNSE by more than 60%. Rather than treating this as a leaderboard-style comparison, we interpret the experiments as a test of architectural inductive bias for hydrologic sequence inference. The results indicate that recurrent memory remains better aligned with this upstream reconstruction task than an encoder-only Transformer, while downstream hydrologic context provides a strong auxiliary constraint that substantially improves prediction skill across architectures

Earth embedding models transform Earth observation data into embeddings uniquely tied to locations on the Earth's surface. These models are typically evaluated in isolation, comparing the downstream task performance across different Earth embeddings. However, spatially aligned embeddings can naturally be fused, providing richer information per location, a capability that isolated evaluations fail to capture. We therefore propose assessing Earth embeddings by their complementarity: the performance gain of fused embeddings over the best single-model baseline. To operationalise this, we introduce an embedding complementarity index applicable to any embedding and task, and evaluate four Earth embedding models (AlphaEarth, Tessera, GeoCLIP, SatCLIP) in isolation, in all pairs, and jointly across six downstream tasks. Fused embeddings outperform the best single model in four out of six tasks, confirming that single-embedding evaluations often underestimate Earth embedding capabilities. Complementarity proves both task- and location-dependent. Further, for a land cover regression task, we find that complementarity is partially determined by the spatial scale of land cover classes. Complementarity reframes Earth embeddings: the greatest future gains may come not from any single Earth embedding model, but from combinations that are better together.