It's all In the (Exponential) Family: An Equivalence between Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Control Variates for Sketching Algorithms

Reliable decision-making with streaming data requires principled uncertainty quantification of online methods. While first-order methods enable efficient iterate updates, their inference procedures still require updating proper (covariance) matrices, incurring $O(d^2)$ time and memory complexity, and are sensitive to ill-conditioning and noise heterogeneity of the problem. This costly inference task offers an opportunity for more robust second-order methods, which are, however, bottlenecked by solving Newton systems with $O(d^3)$ complexity. In this paper, we address this gap by studying an online Newton method with Hessian averaging, where the Newton direction at each step is approximately computed using a sketch-and-project solver with Nesterov's acceleration, matching $O(d^2)$ complexity of first-order methods. For the proposed method, we quantify its uncertainty arising from both random data and randomized computation. Under standard smoothness and moment conditions, we establish global almost-sure convergence, prove asymptotic normality of the last iterate with a limiting covariance characterized by a Lyapunov equation, and develop a fully online covariance estimator with non-asymptotic convergence guarantees. We also connect the resulting uncertainty quantification to that of exact and sketched Newton methods without Nesterov's acceleration. Extensive experiments on regression models demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method for online inference.

We study an online sketched Newton method that approximates the Newton direction at each step via a state-of-the-art sketching solver, called the generalized accelerated sketch-and-project solver (GAS), thereby mitigating the computational bottleneck of classical second-order methods. The GAS solver improves upon vanilla, unaccelerated sketch-and-project solvers by achieving accelerated convergence through Nesterov momentum updates, and accommodates a flexible projection metric whose proper choice further reduces computational cost. Building on this design, we establish asymptotic normality of the averaged sketched Newton iterates and characterize their limiting covariance matrix. The resulting covariance recovers that of the unaccelerated sketched Newton method under a specific choice of acceleration parameters, converges more rapidly (in the number of sketching steps) to the minimax-optimal covariance in general, and is smaller than that of the last iterate produced by the accelerated method. Finally, we strengthen these results by establishing a functional central limit theorem for the Newton iterates, which allows us to bypass explicit covariance estimation and develop an online inference procedure based on random scaling. Specifically, we construct a pivotal test statistic by appropriately rescaling the averaged iterates, so that its limiting distribution is free of any unknown parameters, enabling asymptotically valid online inference. Numerical experiments demonstrate superior performance of the proposed inference procedure.

\texttt{TensorSketch} by~\cite{pham2013fast,kar2012random} provides efficient sketching algorithms for high-dimensional polynomial kernels $\vec{x}^{\otimes p} \in \R^{d^p}$. \cite{kar2012random} uses dense Johnson-Lindenstrauss (JL)-type projections with computational cost $O(pDd)$, where $D$ denotes the sketch dimension, whereas~\cite{pham2013fast} extends the sparse \texttt{CountSketch}\citep{count_sketch} algorithm, yielding a faster algorithm for high-dimensional sparse inputs with running time $O\big(p(\nnz{\vec{x}} + D \log D)\big)$. However, the variance of both estimators grows exponentially with the polynomial degree $p$, scaling as $3^{p}/D$. Recent work by\cite{pmlr-v206-wacker23a} showed that using complex-valued distribution reduces this dependence to $2^{p}/D$ for the approach of~\cite{kar2012random}. However, their method relies on dense JL-type projections with computational cost $O(pDd)$ and does not extend to the algorithm of~\cite{pham2013fast}. In this work, we introduce a simple variant of \texttt{TensorSketch}\citep{pham2013fast} that achieves the same variance bound as\cite{pmlr-v206-wacker23a}, while retaining its advantage of the input-sparsity running time. We validate our results with supporting experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets.